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[NL2-NL10] NL 10 Squeeze missed flop -- now what?

    • VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,504
      Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      MP: $16.92 (169.2 bb)30/27/13.6/28.0 v/p/3/af 143 hands
      Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)
      UTG: $10.69 (106.9 bb) 82/21/28.6/3.2 v/p/3/af 28 hands (wtsd 29)
      BB: $2.85 (28.5 bb)
      CO: $11.07 (110.7 bb)
      SB: $13.83 (138.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q A
      UTG calls $0.10, MP raises to $0.40, CO calls $0.40, Hero raises to $2.10, 2 folds, UTG calls $2, MP calls $1.70, CO folds

      Flop: ($6.85) K 9 3 (3 players)
      UTG checks, MP checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($6.85) J (3 players)
      UTG bets $2.20, MP folds, Hero ???

      Should I have even squeezed here? They seem like the right type of players, I'm in position. Is the hand good enough to squeeze with?

      On the flop I don't even have a gutshot.
      Kings and all manner of pocket pairs are in his range.

      They both check as if expecting me to CBet.
      Should I have CBet this mess?
      I think I missed an opportunity, since KK, AK, are all within my range.

      On the turn, I don't see how I can call this, and I really, really don't feel like raising it.

  • 2 replies
    • elchipriota
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      On the flop I feel a bet of around 1.90 would do the same job with 2.10.

      What are your stats on the CO? Do you feel his call range is loose enough to justify a squeeze?

      Also what are both players stats for foldcbet? Can they lay down a marginal hand on a squeeze?

      Personally I would go for a Cbet on the flop because we are ahead of some Ax and we can rep the king to get them to fold some lower pairs.

      On the turn its a fold.

      I wouldnt mind going for a call on the flop with potision tbh.

      I am interested to see what the judges have to say.

    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Your squeeze seems way too huge. 1.60 seems to do just ifne. And A/K high flops are almost always good to cbet on in 3b pots. If you half pot it and expect them to fold everything worse than K pair, then you probably have a profitable cbet. I would bet 2.70 here (you made the pot unnecessarily big with your huge preflop sqz so I would make a <50% pot size bet on Flop to compensate for that)