[NL2-NL10] NL5 - Two Pair

    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Fold the flop to the shove?

      I felt it was a fairly close decision, but probably should have been a fold after I showed strength with my re-raise?

      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $12.50 (250 bb)
      SB: $3.28 (65.6 bb)
      BB: $5.05 (101 bb)
      UTG: $8.19 (163.8 bb)
      MP: $5 (100 bb)
      Hero (CO): $17.39 (347.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J 7
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, BTN folds, SB calls $0.10, BB calls $0.07

      Flop: ($0.36) 7 J 8 (3 players)
      SB checks, BB bets $0.15, Hero raises to $0.70, SB folds, BB raises to $4.93, Hero calls $4.23

      Turn: ($10.22) 2 (2 players)
      River: ($10.22) 3 (2 players)

      Results:
      $10.22 pot ($0.42 rake)
      Final Board: 7 J 8 2 3
      SB mucked and lost (-$0.12 net)
      BB showed J 8 and won $9.80 ($4.75 net)
      Hero showed J 7 and lost (-$5.05 net)
  • 10 replies
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Hi there,

      I'm not sure whether you'll find it helpful, but if for some reason you don't like the PokerStrategy hand converter, try this one.

      P.S.: Google knows even more.

      Regards,

      German
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Thanks, was a bit of a struggle but managed to get the hand converted properly
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Glad you managed to do it :) I believe the hand judge will be grateful for your effort.

      In my opinion, preflop is not default as well. It's slightly looser than you normally should open CO. Also I'm not sure that 2.5 BB is a good amount from CO. I would raise 4, but you can at least 3.

      Flop: I would raise, but fold on such a push quite easily. I just don't see any hands that we beat. Pay attention to the possible street on the board. (If I were the villain, I wouldn't push either on such a board).

      EDIT: Oh, you used HEM after all :D
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      Preflop I will only raise here if the players after me are pretty tight or if there's a super big fish on the blinds and the rest of the players are not fighting for the fish.

      I'd make it $0.55 on the flop.
      When he shoves it is really mostly up to your reads on him.
      Against an unknown I'd probably let it go here, since in my personal experience I'm mostly against better hands in these spots.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Plamen, a quick question please.

      How do we decide on the raise size postflop? I just raise to the pot (like here) almost always, or maybe subtract a few BB if it looks too scary :)

      F.e. in this case, I wouldn't even subtract anything, because we need to protect our hand (he might have a strong draw, who knows).

      TY
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello there,

      You asked a pretty good question that made me think.

      Usually we have to take into consideration a couple of variables such as:
      - the board texture - if there are a lot of draws then we can raise bigger
      - our opponent - if we play against a huge fish for example, there's nothing wrong in raising very big for value, or if we play against a weak tight opponent who doesn't really care about the sizes we could just raise little as a bluff.
      - the SPR - we should keep in mind that we might need better SPR on later streets and raise bigger/smaller according to this
      - any previous history with the opponent can affect our sizing too

      So, now looking at these, I actually like raising it to $0.65-$0.7, since there are a lot of draws.

      Do you have anything to add?
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Yes, I have something to add:

      Thanks a lot for a great reply in no time. These variables are indeed noteworthy ;)
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Agreed, it was the number of potential draws that pushed me to raise for nearly pot size. Its unlikely he would fold any of his flush draws, and depending on how he plays he may even call with OESD.

      Problem when he shoves is that we have already shown a lot of strength by raising relatively big, it put me in a tough spot.

      In my mind the potential range included:

      Top pair good kicker (We have 70% equity)
      Two pair - Most likely 87 in my mind given they are connected (We have 90% equity)
      Two pair - Could be J8 (We have 10% equity)
      Set of 7's or 8's (We have 10% equity)
      Made straight (We have 10% equity)
      Nut flush draw (We have 65% equity)
      Pair & flush draw (We have 60% equity)
      Combo draw (We have 40 - 50% equity)

      I needed about 41% equity to break even on the decision to call.

      Against non-maniacs, we can discount top pair type hands.

      Question is whether he will push the draws, if he doesn't I'm not loving my odds - I had five hands on him so it left me very unsure, hence the post.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Hi, Phil,

      You are absolutely right. The only thing I don't get is why you are still consider it as a tough spot :)

      I can give you with 100% confidence a +EV tip: don't ever think that someone will play draws by bet/shoving 3.5x total pot :) Even if after 15 years of grinding NL5 you'll find a mental desperate maniac who will play a draw like that, you will go broke million times on your way to to find this maniac :)

      Another +EV tip: do not diagnose someone as a mental desperate maniac having 5 hands on him :)

      I put it all together and got the equity of 30% (I even included a couple of draws (!) as well as another J7 with which we would split, and 87 which we are ahead of). What you forgot though is to calculate your required equity for a call. I did it for you: to break even you would need 41% equity excluding a huge rake.

      EDIT: oh, I'm just blind, you didn't forget it. Sorry.

      Basically, your equity is not even 30% to be completely honest, but it doesn't change much. So why is it still a tough spot? ;)

      Regards,

      German
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Clearly like all poker decisions it depends on the likelyhood of each type of hand.

      When I stuck it in I got 35% equity, assuming he only shoves pair+draw hands or the best combo-draw out there. Ends up totalling to 8 draws he may shove out of 55 possible remaining flush draw hands:

      88-77, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, JcTc, Jc9c, J8s-J7s, Jc6c, Jc5c, T9s, 9c6c, 87s, J8o-J7o, T9o, 87o

      I guess in my view its closer, but still a fold. Just a shame I didn't have time to do this when playing the hand.