[NL20-NL50] 78s river shove or not ? nl 25 sh

    • dzikson999
      dzikson999
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2010 Posts: 532
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BTN: $13.77
      SB: $25.35
      BB: $29.01
      UTG: $10.58
      Hero (CO): $39.52

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 7:club: 8:club:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.60, 2 players) 6:spade: 9:club: J:club:
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

      Turn: ($4.10, 2 players) 5:heart:
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.25, BB calls $3.25

      River: ($10.60, 2 players) J:diamond:
      BB bets $7.25, Hero calls $7.25
      Villain is 21/18 bad reg with low agr f 0.7, wtsd 33% w&sd 36%
      I wanted to shove but than i cange my mind cause off his low ag f i started to be scared off him having full house cause his river donk is for sure velue bet but is from Jx or full( on more agro player i would shove cause i expect they will raise with set on this hdb earlyier on flo por turn, but i am not sure about this guy ) So what do you think what move is more ev + call or shove ?
  • 6 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dzikson,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Flop: Looks fine with our combo draw (and 8 high)

      Turn: We hit our draw which is great so we need to continue betting (for value).

      River: This is a simple math question, however I will not give you the answer right away :)

      I'll give you the equation and I'd like you to solve it.

      Please answer the following:
      1) What does he bet?
      2) Split the hands he bet in hands that can bet/call
      3) Split the hands above further into hands that bet/call and we beat and bet/call and we lose to
      4) Count the combos for each side
      5) See which side has more combos
      6) Decide if you can value-raise

      Let me know if you have any questions :)
    • dzikson999
      dzikson999
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2010 Posts: 532
      I like my little home work that you given me so lets get stared :)
      1.He can bet JJ,66,55-(some times),J9s+,J10o +
      2.he bet calls(JJ,66,J9s,Ajo,Ajs,KJs probably KJo)
      3.we beat 6 +6 combos off AJo and KJo + suited 2 combos off each0 16 combos total
      4.we lost to-3 combos off 66 + 2 combos off J9s + 1 combo JJ and 55 from time to time =total 6 combos
      5 . we beta 16>6 so clear value raise right !
    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      he could have

      66-99-JJ-J9-55 that we loose
      JT-JQ-JK-AJ that we win

      not sure about what a combo mean tho :D
      6h6d and 6h6c and 6c6d are three combo? if that so

      66=3combo
      99=3combo
      JJ=1combo
      J9=6combo
      55=3combo
      total=16 combo

      JT=8combo
      JQ=8combo
      JK=8combo
      AJ=8combo
      total=32 combo

      hmmm have no clue but i tried :D
      i dont know what combo means
    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      about the hand his play looks wired to me!

      if he had a set he maybe did not raise the flop but he should raise the turn like 99% of the time! its not easy to put hero on a 78 or 8T.

      he is very passive so i put him on AJ or Jx i cant believe he did not raise on flop or turn with a set!

      whats the result ?:D
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by dzikson999
      I like my little home work that you given me so lets get stared :)
      1.He can bet JJ,66,55-(some times),J9s+,J10o +
      2.he bet calls(JJ,66,J9s,Ajo,Ajs,KJs probably KJo)
      3.we beat 6 +6 combos off AJo and KJo + suited 2 combos off each0 16 combos total
      4.we lost to-3 combos off 66 + 2 combos off J9s + 1 combo JJ and 55 from time to time =total 6 combos
      5 . we beta 16>6 so clear value raise right !
      Looks good. He may even bet/call JT/QJ if he get's married to his hand.

      Considering how few hands beat us here (compared to how many worse can bet/call) I'd shove here. The only time I'd just call is when we expect villain to bet/fold Jx.
    • dzikson999
      dzikson999
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2010 Posts: 532
      I won he showed KJs