[NL20-NL50] NL50 TT 3bet pot turning into bluff river

    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Reproduzir mão

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $50.25
      BB:
      $51.37
      MP3:
      $58.64
      CO:
      $50.00
      BU (Hero):
      $49.75


      Preflop: Hero is BU with T, T.
      2 folds, Hero raises to $1.12, SB folds, BB raises to $3.61, Hero calls $2.49.

      Flop: ($7.47) 8, Q, 3 (2 players)
      BB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50.

      Turn: ($16.47) 2 (2 players)
      BB bets $8.23, Hero calls $8.23.

      River: ($32.93) K (1 players)
      BB checks

      Villain 2.3k hands
      23/17/7
      3bet vs steal BB 12%
      3bet vs open BU 11%
      cbet flop in 3bet pot 75% (12)
      cbet turn in 3bet pot 1 in 3 (overall cbet turn 61% (36))
      WTSD 32%
      WWSF 47%
      Agg freq 37/40/28

      Relevant notes (not sure if that relevant):"-12/12 nl50, vs me, 77 BUbb, cbet AJ8ss, cbet turn no FD 4sss, 3rd barrel bluff river 50% K ---> bluff bet river 50%"
      -12/12 nl50, vs me, 3bet BBsb 4$, cbet/f 6/8 KQxss"

      I thought about turning into bluff river and shoving to fold Qx and JJ. Besides, does it seem likely villain has a c/c range here?
  • 4 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Double2,

      Preflop: Since he is very aggressive, and if we had aggressive dynamics (lots of 3-bet/4-bet) then we can just 4-bet this preflop and go with the hand (a lot of money would be made from him folding his 3-bet). Without dynamics or without expecting him to stack off light we can't 4-bet/call. So the 4-bet would be a bluff.

      What's his range on the river?

      A guy with this high WTSD over such a sample is most likely not able to fold a Qx on that river. He may not even fold JJ.

      Think about what you represent when shoving? You don't shove AQ/Qx, you rarely ever have a Kx so the only thing you rep is a slowplayed monster or a flush.

      I can see villain checking for example AK here, KJ, Kx (Kh).
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi Double2,

      Preflop: Since he is very aggressive, and if we had aggressive dynamics (lots of 3-bet/4-bet) then we can just 4-bet this preflop and go with the hand (a lot of money would be made from him folding his 3-bet). Without dynamics or without expecting him to stack off light we can't 4-bet/call. So the 4-bet would be a bluff.

      What's his range on the river?

      A guy with this high WTSD over such a sample is most likely not able to fold a Qx on that river. He may not even fold JJ.

      Think about what you represent when shoving? You don't shove AQ/Qx, you rarely ever have a Kx so the only thing you rep is a slowplayed monster or a flush.

      I can see villain checking for example AK here, KJ, Kx (Kh).
      But with a Kx type of hand isn't he better off just shoving river and hope to get called? I mean, vs me I think that line is way better than c/c, I don't see myself betting worse than Kx that often (although I did do it this time :s_evil: )
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by double2
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi Double2,

      Preflop: Since he is very aggressive, and if we had aggressive dynamics (lots of 3-bet/4-bet) then we can just 4-bet this preflop and go with the hand (a lot of money would be made from him folding his 3-bet). Without dynamics or without expecting him to stack off light we can't 4-bet/call. So the 4-bet would be a bluff.

      What's his range on the river?

      A guy with this high WTSD over such a sample is most likely not able to fold a Qx on that river. He may not even fold JJ.

      Think about what you represent when shoving? You don't shove AQ/Qx, you rarely ever have a Kx so the only thing you rep is a slowplayed monster or a flush.

      I can see villain checking for example AK here, KJ, Kx (Kh).
      But with a Kx type of hand isn't he better off just shoving river and hope to get called? I mean, vs me I think that line is way better than c/c, I don't see myself betting worse than Kx that often (although I did do it this time :s_evil: )
      So if he shoves Kx there, especially a weaker Kx (not AK) can he expect to get called by much worse?

      Can he expect you, or a regular to call 88-JJ, Qx?

      If we are in his shoes with Kx can we expect villain to call much worse on this river?
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Originally posted by double2
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi Double2,

      Preflop: Since he is very aggressive, and if we had aggressive dynamics (lots of 3-bet/4-bet) then we can just 4-bet this preflop and go with the hand (a lot of money would be made from him folding his 3-bet). Without dynamics or without expecting him to stack off light we can't 4-bet/call. So the 4-bet would be a bluff.

      What's his range on the river?

      A guy with this high WTSD over such a sample is most likely not able to fold a Qx on that river. He may not even fold JJ.

      Think about what you represent when shoving? You don't shove AQ/Qx, you rarely ever have a Kx so the only thing you rep is a slowplayed monster or a flush.

      I can see villain checking for example AK here, KJ, Kx (Kh).
      But with a Kx type of hand isn't he better off just shoving river and hope to get called? I mean, vs me I think that line is way better than c/c, I don't see myself betting worse than Kx that often (although I did do it this time :s_evil: )
      So if he shoves Kx there, especially a weaker Kx (not AK) can he expect to get called by much worse?

      Can he expect you, or a regular to call 88-JJ, Qx?

      If we are in his shoes with Kx can we expect villain to call much worse on this river?
      I get your point and it is very valid. I'm still getting used to this kind of line of thought, where c/c calling this river is better, since opponent can turn something into a bluff, that just jam and expect to get called by Qx.