[NL2-NL10] Kk 9/12

    • carrapa
      carrapa
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2010 Posts: 1,295
      Prima, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $1.20 (30 bb)
      Hero (MP): $4.16 (104 bb)
      CO: $4.81 (120.2 bb)
      BTN: $27.30 (682.5 bb)
      SB: $5.14 (128.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with K K
      Hero raises to $0.16, CO calls $0.16, BTN folds, SB calls $0.14, BB folds

      Flop: ($0.52) Q K 9 (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40, SB folds

      Turn: ($1.32) 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.04, CO calls $1.04

      River: ($3.40) J (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.56 and is all-in, CO calls $2.56

      Villain was 29/15 with 5.4 3bet..

      I thought that I beat most of his range, that's the reason I shoved on the river..
  • 14 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Carrapa,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Flop: Looks fine. It's very coordinated so we can bet for value/protection

      Turn: Nothing changes (besides adding more draws) so bet is fine.

      River: What range do you put him on for getting to the river?

      We beat a good portion of it but he still has Tx hands like QT/KT/AT etc.
    • carrapa
      carrapa
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2010 Posts: 1,295
      Actually I put him on Kx, Qx when playing the hand, but now I really don't know :D
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by carrapa
      Actually I put him on Kx, Qx when playing the hand, but now I really don't know :D
      Well, it shouldn't be just Kx, Qx (and some Kx, Qx has a T in it).

      As mentioned villain also has JJ/TT, some JT slowplay, 9T, 9J, AT, etc.
    • carrapa
      carrapa
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2010 Posts: 1,295
      so, the call otr is bad?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by carrapa
      so, the call otr is bad?
      Do you mean the 2/3 pot all in bet?
    • carrapa
      carrapa
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2010 Posts: 1,295
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Originally posted by carrapa
      so, the call otr is bad?
      Do you mean the 2/3 pot all in bet?
      sorry, yes :D
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by carrapa
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Originally posted by carrapa
      so, the call otr is bad?
      Do you mean the 2/3 pot all in bet?
      sorry, yes :D
      Well let's give you a bit more homework :)

      This is an exercise in hand combination counting.

      If you have time, please do the following:

      A) Write down the hands he calls a shove with that we beat
      B) Count the combinations he can have of the above hands
      C) Write down the hands he calls a shove with that we lose to
      D) Count the combinations he can have of the above hands

      Compare B and D. What do you see? Can we shove for value?
    • carrapa
      carrapa
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2010 Posts: 1,295
      Hm, let me see if I do it right..

      A) A2, A3, A4, A6, A7, A8, A9, AJ, AQ, JJ, QQ, JT, 9T

      B) I don't understand what you mean.. Is it the statistic combinations we learn in math? Those I've forgotten xD But I'll try: 2 aces left and 4 deuces, so 8 combinations? If so, 8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+(3+2+1)+(3+2+1)+12+12=108.

      If it's wrong, maybe you want the number of types of hands? 13

      C) 54, 55, 56, A5, AT

      D) 8+1+8+4+6=27 or 5

      I think it's all wrong :D

      With my numbers yes, we can shove for value..
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Aw...mate :) It's all very straightforward, no statistics.

      You can basically do the same in two steps (to avoid confusion).

      A) count the hands he can call that we beat
      B) count the hands he can call that we lose to

      Well, to begin with, you did A wrong. "count the hands he can call that we beat". Even if you can imagine him calling the flop/turn with A2-A9, he definitely will fold it on your river push. Be realistic. With what hands could he possibly call all the way from preflop up to the showdown.

      Then, simply count them.

      A) QQ -- one, 99 - two, JJ -- three (a marginal hand though), etc. I think you got the point.
      B) TT -- one, JT -- two, etc.

      Than you need A-B. If you were fair in your analysis, and the result is positive, you can kinda say that your push is justified.

      I hope I was clear enough :)

      P.S.: Instead of counting, you could type in his range into the Equilab, define the board, and you will get the equity. To break even, the equity of a bit higher than 50% would do (higher because of the rake). However, interestingly enough, I assume that your estimate should be exactly the same, because on river there are no probabilities involved. In each case, your equity will be either 100% or 0%. So maybe Bogdan's advice is actually faster than using software.

      P.P.S.: Actually, it's not all that simple. Here we assume that the probabilities of the villain having each hand are equal -- it's not true of course. That's why, if you provided all the information we could possibly use on the villain, it would be possible to deduce which hands are more likely. That's what poker is all about :) Good thing is, this skill comes with practice (and learning). Bad thing is, you will rarely have enough information on most opponents.

      P.P.P.S.: Bogdan, give me a little bit of homework as well :f_biggrin:
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by carrapa
      Hm, let me see if I do it right..

      A) A2, A3, A4, A6, A7, A8, A9, AJ, AQ, JJ, QQ, JT, 9T

      B) I don't understand what you mean.. Is it the statistic combinations we learn in math? Those I've forgotten xD But I'll try: 2 aces left and 4 deuces, so 8 combinations? If so, 8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+(3+2+1)+(3+2+1)+12+12=108.

      If it's wrong, maybe you want the number of types of hands? 13

      C) 54, 55, 56, A5, AT

      D) 8+1+8+4+6=27 or 5

      I think it's all wrong :D

      With my numbers yes, we can shove for value..
      First, thanks German for your post however you also got it somewhat wrong.

      For example:

      A) QQ is not one but rather 3 combos, same for 99 and JJ. This is important because if you now add hands like AK instead of saying that's one hand that's actually 4 combos.

      Carrapa,

      My exercise was meant to get you to think about combinations (for example AcAh is one combination, there are 6 ways you can combine the 4 aces in the deck so you have 6 combinations).

      Now that we know this can you try again?

      Remember we need to count hands that we beat (when he calls a shove) and lose to (when he calls a shove).
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      First, thanks German for your post however you also got it somewhat wrong.

      For example:

      A) QQ is not one but rather 3 combos, same for 99 and JJ. This is important because if you now add hands like AK instead of saying that's one hand that's actually 4 combos.
      Oh, true. I though about it. To put it simply, we need to consider suits as well :)

      The formula is:

      n choose m = n! / m!(n-m)!, where n is the number of cards, and m is how much do we choose (always 2 in our case).

      I expect you to dislike it, so here you go (save somewhere for reference):

      The hole cards composed of (considering the suit):
      • two cards = 1
      • three cards = 3
      • four cards = 6
      • five cards = 10
      • six cards = 15
      • seven cards = 21
      • eight cards = 28

      Hope there're no mistakes :)

      Thanks Bogdan. Did I get you right this time? :)

      EDIT: something doesn't work here...I can't figure out what. So probably disregard the formula and do it each time in your head :) If someone knows what's wrong here, I'm curious.

      Example: we arrange 1 King and 2 Aces: Ah and As. The formula would arrange them like AhK, AsK, AhAs. But AhAs is not AK, but rather AA :) I don't know how to fix it.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      I believe there's a small mistake in your formula.

      The formula I use is pretty simple:

      For pairs we have 6 combos if no dead cards. If one dead card we have 3 combos. If 2 dead cards we have 1 combo

      For non-paired hands is Y x Z.

      For example AK on K34 can have 12 combinations.

      There are 4 A and 3 K, so 4x3=12.

      If you want to do suited versus offsuite and you have Kd on the board we know that there are 3 different suites left so we have 3 suited AK and 9 offsuite AK.

      PS: I may have misunderstood your eight hole cards but I think if I read it correctly you are saying that for example AQ with no A/Q anywhere has 28 combos? If so that is way off :)
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Yes, it's way off because of the example I gave in the previous post.

      It would include not only AQ, but AA and QQ as well.

      Imagine it this way. You have eight cards in front of you: 4 A and 4 Q. How can you arrange them? The answer is -- in 28 ways :) But it doesn't help in poker :f_biggrin:

      Sweet. It works! :) I made a note for myself...maybe one day I'll learn how to do it in my head during the game (and won't have another PC to run equilab simultaneously) :f_biggrin:

      It wasn't all that obvious for me, so I'll mention it for carrapa:

      In Bogdan's exmple with suited vs. offsuit, 3 is the number of suits left, and 9 = 12 (the total number of AK with K on the board) minus 3 (suited AK)
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Ah I see what you mean now.

      Yeh I can't see that being that useful in a real life example simply because if I care about Ax combos I really don't care about the x variants as well

      So like in your example if I look for combos of AQ I don't really care much about QQ (or even AA).