[NL2-NL10] NL5 AKo

    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Villain is 18/14/50
      5% 3bet (0,0,3,9 = EP,MP,LP,blinds)
      15% 4bet
      270 hands

      PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      LP: $4.64
      CO: $3.00
      BTN: $5.00
      SB: $5.00
      BB: $5.66
      Hero (UTG): $5.61
      UTG+1: $1.93
      MP: $8.29
      MP+1: $2.39

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has K:spade: A:club:

      Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, MP+1 calls $0.20, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.60, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.45, fold, fold

      Hero wins $1.47

      [/b]


      There are a number of options here and I think each one has its merits

      a) fold to his 3bet as we are OOP postflop if he calls

      b) 4bet/fold

      c) 4bet/call

      I guess there is also d) call his 3bet, but I think playing AKo OOP without initiative is very -EV.

      One thing that makes me think he is not that strong is the sizing of his 3bet. It is only 3x my raise even though another player (50%callPFR, quite fishy) has called also, and he's on the button. I think he just wants to iso the fish who cold calls way too often. So I choose option B and plan to 4bet/fold.
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Metza,

      I agree with your analysis that he is most likely trying to iso the fish so I like our 4-bet.

      However, once we put in 29 BB can we bet/fold 100 bb deep?

      What range do you think he shoves over? Find the equity versus that and see what pot odds we get versus a shove.
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      I think QQ+, AK he's shoving over, and we have only 29% equity against this range, and are getting pot odds of 3.2:1 so its very very marginal here. The problem is I've seen him shove QQ but never AK, not that that means he's not doing it, because often preflop shoves don't get called, but still...

      One thing I'm not sure how to use exactly is the 4bet% stat. Does 15% mean 15% of his 14% preflop raises he'll 4bet when 3bet, so its 2.1% of total hands he will 4bet? Is this correct? But 270 hands is not enough to converge for 4bet though I think.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Metza,

      AKo vs QQ+, AK actually has 39% equity (not 29%) so we can't fold once we put in 29 BB as we get roughly 35% pot odds.

      Against QQ+ only we have 31%.

      As far as your second question goes for him to be able to 4-bet he needs to face a 3-bet.

      So that's 15% of the times he faced a 3-bet not his PFR.