[NL20-NL50] bad fold?

    • daisuke3823
      daisuke3823
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      ハンドをプレーする

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU:
      $21.48
      SB:
      $39.31
      BB:
      $45.82
      MP2 (Hero):
      $32.57
      MP3:
      $23.68
      CO:
      $24.21


      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K.
      Hero raises to $0.75, MP3 folds, CO raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.75.

      Flop: ($3.35) J, T, 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks.

      Turn: ($3.35) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.80, CO raises to $4.50, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $5.15.
      his stats in 21 hands  vpip29 pfr24 af2 wtsd20 w$sd0 3BET14,3
      while we played this hand,his 3 BET was a bit lower than this.
      and its 3 BET against early position.so I just called.
      he checked on the flop.I have gutshot ,so I bet on the turn
      and got raised.
      it seems like bluff,since AA,KK,QQ,J should protect bet on the flop.
      my fold was bad?
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hi,

      I think preflop is OK. Usuaully AKs gets strong enough to 4bet but your reasoning is correct and calling is definitely a very good option. Given his small sizing I'd say a 4bet will also make him call worse hands but 4betting is not a must.

      Given his smaller sizing, I doubt his range contains only very good hands. He can definitely have hands such as 89, 76, 65, T9, etc. Probably even T7s. How often do you think he would bet that flop as a bluff? Imo, when he checks back he could have some bluffs but also quite a few medium strength hands. QJ is not that great and might not value bet because it cannot get value from much. Same goes for AT, KT, 99, etc.

      I want to ask you why did you bet the turn though? The reason for betting is not a fact (having a gutshot, having the best hand, not having the best hand, etc.). It has to have a clear purpose based on your opponents range and his likely action vs our bet. Usually a bet is bluff or value, to different extent given that poker works with very dynamic equity.

      I think betting the turn is not that good here and I would check fold. Usually it's OK to bet but this specific board texture is not. Think of all the hands he can 3bet here and check back. How many give up against a bet? A high usually has extra equity with gutshots or pairs, all suited connector type stuff has equity and will not fold. Only hands that MIGHT fold are some small pairs but even those don't snap fold to one bet. His air range is almost non-existant on this board. Had the board been QT52 with a flushdraw, you can see now how fewer suited connectors have a piece.

      When you get raised it's just a fold unfortunately. Your hand is weak, his range is quite strong even after the flop checkback.