[NL2-NL10] I know I fucked up river but would you cbet flop?

    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Prima, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $18.46 (184.6 bb)
      CO: $9.94 (99.4 bb) loose guy, wide VPIP
      Hero (BTN): $10.38 (103.8 bb)
      SB: $10.94 (109.4 bb)
      BB: $5.71 (57.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with J A
      MP folds, CO raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, CO calls $0.60

      Flop: ($1.95) K T 8 (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($1.95) Q (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $1, CO calls $1

      River: ($3.95) K (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $1.95, CO raises to $8.04 and is all-in, Hero calls $6.09
  • 15 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Mahee,

      Preflop: If he also raises a lot preflop (besides VPIP) then 3-bet for isolation is fine (and thin value).

      As played we should cbet the flop for about $1 as a semi-bluff. He can fold all small pockets.

      Once he checks twice and we hit the nuts betting small is fine.

      On the river I'd actually bet at least $2.5-$3. His range for calling turn is JJ, Qx, some Tx, some Kx. All these can call a bigger bet on the river.

      If villain has been really passive so far we can bet/fold because he is usually on a slowplay like TT/88/KQ/QQ and there's not much he can raise that's worse or a bluff.

      If he hasn't been passive I don't think I can fold (he may raise AK/KJ or bluff)
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      I did not C-bet because,

      KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT, AK, AQ, AT would call flop. All these hands are possible in his calling 3bet range.

      I'll be able to C-bet Turn legitimately only if I hit a Q or an A or a 9.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by maheepsangari
      I did not C-bet because,

      KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT, AK, AQ, AT would call flop. All these hands are possible in his calling 3bet range.

      I'll be able to C-bet Turn legitimately only if I hit a Q or an A or a 9.
      Sure, but what else does his 3-bet calling range have?

      Also, how often does a $1 bet have to work?
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      He'll have hands like JJ-88 also in his range.

      Think his calling 3bet range should be


      Board: K:heart: T:spade: 8:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    67.53%  63.25%   4.28% { JJ-77, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
      MP3    32.47%  28.19%   4.28% { AsJd }



      Need about 33% FE with $1 bet.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Am I missing something in his range?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by maheepsangari
      Am I missing something in his range?
      I would say that unless we think he limps the small pockets I would also add those in and maybe some suited connectors.

      We don't need to look at our equity because that's misleading (for example a hand like 99 that could fold to a cbet still has a ton of equity versus us).

      Rather compare the combinations of hands that can continue versus the ones that would fold.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Total range.

      JJ-44,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo 150 Combos

      What he plays

      JJ-88,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo 117 Combos

      Folds 22% of his range meaning about 22% FE.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by maheepsangari
      Total range.

      JJ-44,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo 150 Combos

      What he plays

      JJ-88,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo 117 Combos

      Folds 22% of his range meaning about 22% FE.
      If you don't think he can fold some pairs like 99 or weak Tx on the flop and you aren't giving him any small PPs in his preflop open/call range than we can't really cbet as a bluff.

      Personally I would add more PPs in his range and I would expect him to fold anything below 2nd pair and occasionally weak 2nd pairs.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Ok if I give him all PPs then that adds just 12 combos and now he has 162 combos.

      In the range I gave him he does fold everything below second pair. Say I even remove 99 and weak 2nd pairs like QT, JT then he has 90 combos that call me.

      So now he folds 72/162, 44.44%. But I still feel people will have a hard time calling 3bets with PPs below 4. 44 would also be at the very bottom I think. He could even be folding PPs below 77 to a 3bet.

      Enjoyed doing this exercise.

      I got owened by KK here. :facepalm:
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by maheepsangari
      Ok if I give him all PPs then that adds just 12 combos and now he has 162 combos.

      In the range I gave him he does fold everything below second pair. Say I even remove 99 and weak 2nd pairs like QT, JT then he has 90 combos that call me.

      So now he folds 72/162, 44.44%. But I still feel people will have a hard time calling 3bets with PPs below 4. 44 would also be at the very bottom I think. He could even be folding PPs below 77 to a 3bet.

      Enjoyed doing this exercise.

      I got owened by KK here. :facepalm:
      Unfortunately we can't expect him to have KK often but there's not much we can do there.

      All PPs don't add just 12 combos.

      22-77 are 6 different pairs, each have 6 combos so a total of 36 combos.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      So clearly he's the kind who would open/call with KK, AA, QQ also adding more combos to ranges that he will call flop with.

      I should start doing this exercise of dissecting ranges more often.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      All PPs don't add just 12 combos. 22-77 are 6 different pairs, each have 6 combos so a total of 36 combos.


      But check carefully, I had already added all PPs till 44 in my initial calculations. I only left out 22,33 so 6 combos.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Oh dear god :)

      When I was reading "c-bet 2 broadway card flop" in the bronze section article, I didn't quite realize why :) Apparently, even in a 3-bet pot, most of the time you will get enough fold equity on such a board to justify the c-bet. When you don't, you still can't figure it out while multitabling at 12 tables :D

      I also realized why Hasenbraten preferred just to say "c-bet 2 broadway card flop" :D
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Th334
      Oh dear god :)

      When I was reading "c-bet 2 broadway card flop" in the bronze section article, I didn't quite realize why :) Apparently, even in a 3-bet pot, most of the time you will get enough fold equity on such a board to justify the c-bet. When you don't, you still can't figure it out while multitabling at 12 tables :D

      I also realized why Hasenbraten preferred just to say "c-bet 2 broadway card flop" :D
      Sorry Mahee, thought you had 88+

      And yes German, usually in 3-bet pots your cbets are 1/2 pot so those only need to work 33% of the time (without counting our equity in the hand).
    • elchipriota
      elchipriota
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      I liked this thread+ discussion. Its a good exercise.

      maheepsangari you might lost to quads here but more often than not he will be having one of the other combos and you would extract more value on that river rather loose in the long term.

      Just keep grinding!