[NL2-NL10] NL2 SH - 99 - 3b/flat?

    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,218
      Not sure whether to 3b and get it in because he is short or just flat and play postflop IP. Preflop than plan was obviously to just 3b and get it in vs UTG because he doesn't have enough to set mine against and I would expect to be pretty much flipping vs his range anyway. However, I would expect to see something like: 77+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KQo when he gets it in here, which I am behind against.


             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    48.53%  47.93%   0.60% { 99 }
      MP3    51.47%  50.87%   0.60% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }


      However, If villain 4b shoves I only ~37% equity or better to make the call profitable don't I?

      total pot / amount to call = pot odds
      0.96 / 0.57 = 1.68 : 1
      (1+1.68) : 1 = 2.68:1
      1/2.68 = 0.37 *100 = 37%

      or

      E* = amount to call / total pot including all bets x100
      = 0.57/1.53 = 0.37 * 100 = 37%

      So even if villain gets it in with the following

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    39.32%  39.13%   0.20% { 99 }
      MP3    60.68%  60.48%   0.20% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }


      then I am still making a profitable 3b/call?

      I think this is correct. Just posting to clarify.

      I know this might be overkill to justify a simple decision but it's good practice for me and helps me to solidify good reasoning for my actions. :f_biggrin:

      Thanks in advance

      PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      UTG: $0.75 33/18/2/0/60/41 hands - LP from what I have seen thus far
      Hero (CO): $2.74
      BTN: $3.74
      SB: $1.74
      BB: $3.81

      SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has 9:diamond: 9:heart:

      UTG raises to $0.06, Hero raises to $0.18, fold, fold, fold, fold

      Hero wins $0.15
  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Muel,

      Assuming we have 0 FE when we 3-bet we would rely only our hand equity.

      But our profit comes two ways:

      A) when he folds to the 3-bet and we collect the money from the pot
      B) when we stack off, although the profit won't be huge.

      So for example JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ is only 4% of all hands. If he opens 10% that means that more than half the time we pick up the dead money and when we go all in we are close to break even (considering the rake too).
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,218
      edit
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,218
      so are my above calculations irrelevant in this situation? If so where are they applicable?

      If he opens 10% that means that more than half the time we pick up the dead money and when we go all in we are close to break even


      Could you elaborate on this point a little? Why would we be break even? Is it because if he opens 10% but only goes broke with a 4% range then the other 6% of his range he is folding, therefore he would be folding a little over 1/2 the time?

      and we would be break even because we need 37% but since we only have 39% equity vs his 4% range and we have to factor in rake as well then we don't profit as much as we should aim for?

      If this is the case would you prefer a more passive approach preflop or would you expect villain to go broke with a looser range anyway ( something like the 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo) in which case we might be making a more profitable move?

      Thanks
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by muel294
      so are my above calculations irrelevant in this situation? If so where are they applicable?

      If he opens 10% that means that more than half the time we pick up the dead money and when we go all in we are close to break even


      Could you elaborate on this point a little? Why would we be break even? Is it because if he opens 10% but only goes broke with a 4% range then the other 6% of his range he is folding, therefore he would be folding a little over 1/2 the time?

      and we would be break even because we need 37% but since we only have 39% equity vs his 4% range and we have to factor in rake as well then we don't profit as much as we should aim for?

      If this is the case would you prefer a more passive approach preflop or would you expect villain to go broke with a looser range anyway ( something like the 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo) in which case we might be making a more profitable move?

      Thanks
      Your calculations are fine and would help in this case.

      When we go all in we get 37% pot odds. If he goes all in with 4% of the top of his range which is JJ+, AQ+ then we have 39% equity. So our call would be along the break even mark (we have to substract rake).

      Your profit would come from him folding 6% of the 10% or 60% of his entire opening range. So that's pure profit right there.

      So the break even part, slightly ev is the CALL. The 3-bet itself is made of two parts:

      A) When he folds
      B) When he shoves when we call

      A) is always +EV and B) is break even or slightly +EV so overal A+B is +EV.

      I hope this makes sense. Let me know if you'd like me to clarify further.
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,218
      cool just like to be crystal clear.

      Thanks for taking the time to clear that up for me :)