[NL2-NL10] bu 55, to maximize EV: check turn?

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2032994
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BTN): $5.12 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2.0, Hands: 64177
      SB: $7.53 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 1.4, Hands: 281
      BB: $5.22 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 0.0, Hands: 35
      UTG: $5.15 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 11, 3B: 7, AF: 2.0, Hands: 137
      MP: $5.35 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 17, 3B: 6, AF: 3.0, Hands: 64
      CO: $14.94 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 14, 3B: 10, AF: 2.5, Hands: 93

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with 5 :club: 5 :diamond:
      1 fold, MP raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.52) 5 :heart: Q :club: J :spade: (3 players)
      MP bets $0.25, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.25, MP calls $1

      Turn: ($3.02) Q :heart: (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero?
      I have 3.72$ behind. If he has a Q or JJ, we are going AI anyways. We have to maximize value against weaker holdings (vs NOT Qx hands). His range here is I think JJ+, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo
      We mainly have to maximize value against AA,KK (against others we go AI anyways), so we should CHECK, and raise AI on river if he bets, or just push river if he checks. What do you think?
  • 5 replies
    • straywolf
      straywolf
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2009 Posts: 203
      i think its a bet on the turn, the Turn Queen puts out a FD and makes 2nd pair more willing to get to showdown.
      so bet prolly something a little less than halfpot like $1.14
      cause not forgetting hands like AK, some KJs, some AJ, KT type hands that can call a small turn bet
      he may call the turn or even shove, either way its fine.

      river pot is $5.30, leaving you both $2.58 effectively. comfortable half pot bet can still get called by AA, KK, KJ, AJ. not forgetting sometimes he rivers his straight,
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hey Imimba,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Flop: That's one big raise we make on this flop.

      Any reason why we potted this somewhat dry flop?

      Turn: After he called flop vs a huge raise he can't really have (m)any "weaker" holdings so I wouldn't be worried about trying to maximize value versus them. It's not like he called the flop with TT and we want to stay in.

      Overbet shove may make him fold QT (if he opens) or KQ so I don't mind betting small like 1/3-1/2 pot and then shoving the rest on the river.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by BogdanPS

      Turn: After he called flop vs a huge raise he can't really have (m)any "weaker" holdings so I wouldn't be worried about trying to maximize value versus them. It's not like he called the flop with TT and we want to stay in.
      Trure, true
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Overbet shove may make him fold QT (if he opens) or KQ so I don't mind betting small like 1/3-1/2 pot and then shoving the rest on the river.
      Was just thinking about this. :)
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hey Imimba,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Flop: That's one big raise we make on this flop.

      Any reason why we potted this somewhat dry flop?

      Turn: After he called flop vs a huge raise he can't really have (m)any "weaker" holdings so I wouldn't be worried about trying to maximize value versus them. It's not like he called the flop with TT and we want to stay in.

      Overbet shove may make him fold QT (if he opens) or KQ so I don't mind betting small like 1/3-1/2 pot and then shoving the rest on the river.