[NL20-NL50] NL50SH: KQs

    • kosmonaut111
      Joined: 26.01.2009 Posts: 715
      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $50 (100 bb)
      UTG: $51.94 (103.9 bb)
      BTN: $55.41 (110.8 bb)
      BB: $53.15 (106.3 bb)
      Hero (MP): $50 (100 bb)
      SB: $50 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with K Q
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) 3 4 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, CO calls $3

      Turn: ($9.75) 2 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.80, CO calls $6.80

      River: ($23.35) K (2 players)
      Hero bets $15.60, CO raises to $38.70 and is all-in, Hero calls $23.10 and is all-in

      Opponent is unknown, dont know if reg or fish. Stats are something like 45/35 over 15 hands. Nothing special so far.

      I think flop and turn are standard but what about river. I valubet here vs some lower pair that he wants to bluffcatch. Is c/calling better vs his range ?
      What about his raise ? should I fold ?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I wouldnt call the river without any dynamic. I just dont think people bluff in this manner too often at lower limits. But definitely bet bet bet and then fold to the raise. I think its very possible for him to have all sets in his range still, and some straights like 56s or A5s. He really reps way too many value combos here.

      Sets = 12 combos
      Straights = 8 combos

      So he could easily have 10-20 combos of these monsters. You would need him to have a ton of busted flush draws (Not too many since you have Kc and Qc or turn mid pocket pairs into bluffs (I think he would be likelier to bluff catch with JJ TT 99 and perhaps he could turn 88/66 into a bluff?) But without history Iḿ not giving these guys credit for being able to pull off such huge bluffs.

      Another thing to note is that you are close to the bottom of your value betting range on the river. So you should consider folding. We still have many stronger hands like AA, sets, straights to call the all-in with and we can just fold our AK and KQ