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[NL20-NL50] NL50 QJs c/r flop

    • double2
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Boss, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 3 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $68.46 (136.9 bb)
      Hero (SB): $55.87 (111.7 bb)
      BB: $50.30 (100.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with Q J
      BTN raises to $1, Hero calls $0.75, BB folds

      Flop: ($2.50) 9 8 7 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $1.87, Hero raises to $5.74, BTN calls $3.87

      Turn: ($13.98) Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $8, BTN calls $8

      River: ($29.98) J (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $53.72 and is all-in, Hero folds

      $29.98 pot ($1.45 rake)
      Final Board: 9 8 7 Q J
      BTN mucked and won $28.53 ($13.79 net)
      Hero mucked Q J and lost (-$14.74 net)

      Villain 1.2k hands
      Open BU 54%
      fold to 3bet 60%
      cbet flop 66%
      fold cbet to raise 2 in 3
      WTSD 36%
      WWSF 56%
      Agg freq 43/44/24

      Squeeze 4%

  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      preflop seems fine when BB is a nit.
      Flop semi bluffraise is fine, turn thin value bet is fine.

      river is an overbet right? betting 40 into 30. This is more or less a pokerstove spot so try to put him on some flush draws, pair+OESD hands, and perhaps some made hands turned into bluffs (you can try adding a few combos here and there).

      My guess is that this is a fold given that this is an overbet, but i'm not entirely sure. try stoving 2-3 different ranges, something like an Optimistic, Conservative, and Average range for this opponent. remember to only include hands in his BU opening range of 55%
    • double2
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      I have 36% pot odds.

      Even with an optimistic range I have to fold as it seems:

      Board: 9:heart: 8:heart: 7:spade:  Q:club:  J:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    29.63%  29.63%   0.00% { QhJh }
      MP3    70.37%  70.37%   0.00% { ATs-A9s, KTs, QTs, J9s-J8s, T7s+, KhQh, Ah7h, Kh7h, Ah6h, Kh6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, ATo-A9o, KTo, QTo, J9o-J8o, T7o+ }