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[NL20-NL50] NL25sh AQo TPTK 3barrel facing river shove

    • member001
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 288
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      BTN: $44.63 (178.5 bb)
      SB: $60.24 (241 bb)
      BB: $26.95 (107.8 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $30.44 (121.8 bb)
      MP: $23.90 (95.6 bb) unknown, but not a nit (played 2/4 hands) and possibly bad (no auto-rebuy)
      CO: $5.36 (21.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with A Q
      Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 4 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) 4 5 Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.20, MP calls $1.20

      Turn: ($4.25) 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.80, MP calls $2.80

      River: ($9.85) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.70, MP raises to $19.15 and is all-in, Hero calls $14.45

      $48.15 pot ($2.00 rake)
      Final Board: 4 5 Q 3 7
      Hero showed A Q and won $46.15 ($22.25 net)
      MP showed K A and lost (-$23.90 net)

      Preflop, flop, turn: standard I hope. Betting for value from hands like KQ, QJs, possibly medium pockets might call a couple of streets.

      River: initial plan was to bet/fold 1/2 pot for value, on the basis that villain has showdown value hands (e.g. Qx) that will check behind but might call another bet from me. (Thinking about it now, maybe this is too thin? Not sure that a standard villain would call 3 streets with just top pair worse kicker vs my UTG range.)
      When he shoves, I think again. What value hand does he represent? It's very difficult for him to have a 6 for the backdoor straight (six combos of 66 and they might not always call the flop; he's unlikely to flat 56s-67s preflop vs UTG). Equally, if he has a set he would probably have raised sooner, and it would be strange to raise with a set when the straight completes. So I think he is quite polarised with a small number of value combos, and a possibly larger number of spazzy making-a-move combos. I need him to be bluffing approx 30% of the time, so I call.
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      he's unlikely to flat 56s-67s preflop vs UTG)

      You'd be surprised. That's just you puttin your own thought into your opponent's game. He doesn't play or think like you, you need to know what HE does, not what you do. Sometimes it's close between the 2 but quite often it's lightyears away. I would definitely put A2s, 65s, 76s, 66 in his range.

      If we are to discuss how often he doesn't raise a set there we can use the same process you did and say he can just about always raise 77 because how many 6x and QQ do you have in your range when opening from UTG? He won't think like that though imo, he'll just see 4 to a straight and call.

      We have to seriously think about the value bet though. Can we actually do it? Do we get value? What do you expect him to call here? The more aggressive you look, the more likely he is to not fold Qx, maybe not even a middle pair given board development (they consider you don't vbet Qx anymore so any middle pair = Qx).

      I think just about any line can make sense on the river but each is very opponent dependant and you know he doesn't auto-rebuy, which makes me inclined to think he is bad.

      If I think he is bad I would not bet as small as you did on flop and turn. When it comes to the river, I wouldn't be too worried about him having a better hand that often so I would bet a normal amount again with the intention of bet/folding or bet small to induce light calls and spew (the I call a raise ofc).

      There's a slight problem in your thinking: You initially wanted to bet/fold and then changed your mind. This is a sign you didn't break down all villain's range before taking your action and just looked at your own hand and bet. You have to be a bit more focused and think through before you act. Whether it's bet/call, check/call, bet/fold is besides the point, just have a rational process that made you decide for any of those actions. It won't be 100% correct but it will be correct more often than auto-piloting.