[NL20-NL50] NL25sh 66 quads overbet targetting FH

    • member001
      member001
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 288
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      BTN: $60.63 (242.5 bb)
      SB: $23.29 (93.2 bb)
      BB: $36.10 (144.4 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $25.35 (101.4 bb)
      MP: $29.62 (118.5 bb) 20/12(25h)
      CO: $7.34 (29.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6 6
      Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 4 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) 6 9 A (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.20, MP calls $1.20

      Turn: ($4.25) A (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.90, MP calls $2.90

      River: ($10.05) 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $20.50 and is all-in,

      MP folds X(

      Results: $10.05 pot ($0.45 rake)
      Final Board: 6 9 A A 6
      Hero mucked 6 6 and won $9.60 ($4.75 net)
      MP mucked and lost (-$4.85 net)


      What do you think of the overbet on the river? My reasoning was:

      If villain does not have an A, he will fold to almost any bet and he will rarely bluff when checked to, so I can't get any more value anyway.

      If villain has Ax, he thinks he has the joint nuts (only beaten if I have 3 very unlikely combos of A9 and 1 combo of 66) and will call any bet size for the split. (Well, even if he only calls the overbet 50% of the time, it is still more +EV for me than a normal-sized bet. And I'm sure an average player calls much more than 50% of the time with aces full here.)


      Also I could probably have bet slightly bigger on the flop and turn for a similar reason (he either has an A or he doesn't). We could argue about not pushing him off a flush draw when we hit FH on the turn, but he probably has much more Ax than flush draws in his range so I think there was more value in betting the turn bigger than I did.
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Member001,

      I agree with the overbet shove on the river to maximize value versus Ax.

      The alternative would be to bet roughly $6-$7 to try and get called by TT-JJ.

      So our overbet shove only has to work 1/3 of the time of a regular bet and his range has plenty of Ax, most likely more combos than TT/JJ.

      Well played.