[NL20-NL50] NL50SH: AKo vs cold4b

    • kosmonaut111
      kosmonaut111
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2009 Posts: 715
      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $70.84 (141.7 bb)
      MP: $50 (100 bb)
      BTN: $63.42 (126.8 bb)
      BB: $61.73 (123.5 bb)
      Hero (SB): $220.58 (441.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A K
      MP folds, CO raises to $3, BTN calls $3, Hero raises to $10, BB raises to $25, 3 folds

      CO is the fish from my other hand (89o) stats: 76/46. 6bb was pretty standard open for him, so nothing to worry.
      BU a decent reg, his range is pretty wide.
      BB is a good reg: 24/20 3b IP 10%, 4bet 10,5 (this doesnt include cold4b I think).
      Would you shove it in here? My thoughts were that he probably is kind of honest here and doesnt expect me to raise too loose (I hadnt been too active with 3betting lately and on this table).
  • 2 replies
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      We have 40% pot odds.


             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    39.59%  19.26%  20.33% { AKs, AKo }
      MP3    60.41%  40.08%  20.33% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }



      Even if he has JJ in his range it doesn't change much. I don't think he has AQ. So, this decision is probably really close to a EV neutral one.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by double2
      We have 40% pot odds.


             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    39.59%  19.26%  20.33% { AKs, AKo }
      MP3    60.41%  40.08%  20.33% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }



      Even if he has JJ in his range it doesn't change much. I don't think he has AQ. So, this decision is probably really close to a EV neutral one.
      More or less this. You make your money with AK when he sometimes folds to your shove, sometimes to your 3bet and sometimes calls you 3bet and you print money.

      When you get it in you are behind his range but much, which is why you easily make up for it with plays on the previous streets.

      You basically lose more money by 3bet/folding AK with these sizings than you do by getting it in considering all the other ways you win with it. You would need a read that BB is very tight and doesn't have QQ, AK in his range which I doubt he doesn't given the spewy CO.