[NL2-NL10] TT squzze vs two cold caller

    • shloogy
      shloogy
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 263
      The initial pre flop raiser's stats:
      VP11 PFR9 (8.8)

      Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      UTG+1: $50.75
      UTG+2: $21.40
      MP1: $11.35
      MP2: $26.75
      CO: $24.60
      BTN: $142.35
      Hero (SB): $7.20
      BB: $83.55
      UTG: $15.00

      Pre Flop: Hero is SB with T :club: T :heart:
      1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, UTG+2 calls $2, 2 folds, CO calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7.20 all in, 1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $12.40, 2 folds

      Flop: ($18.90) K :diamond: 3 :spade: 7 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      Turn: ($18.90) J :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($18.90) K :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)
  • 13 replies
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      its ok, but don't expect a lot of profit
      its just slightly +ev
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      he raises from utg so his range is much tighter fold preflop.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      he raises from utg so his range is much tighter fold preflop.


      I've considered it in my evaluation, obviously :P
      its still a push
    • CimkoPro
      CimkoPro
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2008 Posts: 159
      Originally posted by xylere
      he raises from utg so his range is much tighter fold preflop.


      I've considered it in my evaluation, obviously :P
      its still a push
      im confused now it seems like he posted same hand twice and in other thread you answered it different : NL50 TT squeez vs two cold callers
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      Hello CimkoPro,

      you can easily calculate it on your own.

      just your stack/pot=equity
      7,2/18.9=0,38095

      so you need at least 38,09% equity, we can use the equilator now.

      When we give UTG a range of TT+,AQs,AKo then we only have 36.557% equity and we will loose -0,29$ in average.
      So we have to loose him up to at least TT+,AQo+, then we have 40,696% equity, and we will win 0,49$ in average.

      I think we will not have any fold equity because UTG only needs 27,5% equity to call.

      A good possibility to get a better read how loose villain is from UTG, is to look at his attempt to steal. When his ats is higher then 30%, his UTG range will be very tight, something like SSS range. When he only has an ats of 12% or something like this, his UTG range will be looser.

      I hope i could help just a little bit, its not that clear if a push is plus ev or not. The best possibility to avoid these situations is to get the elephant and position stats then you can calculate much easier.

      PS: xylere don't flame me ;-)


      Best Regards

      Ysessa
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      PS: xylere don't flame me ;-)

      :D

      im confused now it seems like he posted same hand twice and in other thread you answered it different


      that's because its close)) last time i didn't do the math, so was just intuitive feel
      but its ok to fold here

      i wouldn't do it however
      as ysessa pointed out it depends on how loose is UTG (I assumed TT+,AQs,AKo)
      Ofc, he is never folding
      however, distance possibility that somebody will stick his money in between with a weaker hand, makes it plus ev
      even if the chance is slim, 5% usually enough)
      I will always push if its a bit -ev or zero ev, because you never know)) and the worst case scenario TT+, AQs, AKo won't hurt you a lot
    • shloogy
      shloogy
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 263
      couldnt understand the logic in what u have just said about if ats is low than UTG is loose and if ats is high than UTG is tihgt.
    • TimothyVdp1
      TimothyVdp1
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.12.2007 Posts: 5,820
      His UTG PFR depends on his ATS and PFR
      if his ATS is higher for the same PFR then his UTG raising range is tighter then when his ATS is lower with the same PFR
    • urmo1
      urmo1
      Black
      Joined: 02.03.2008 Posts: 718
      i would fold preflop but it's close,i would raise all in if his PR would be 13-14 .
    • shloogy
      shloogy
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 263
      wow timothy u need to work a bit on ur english mate, thanks for the explanation but i couldn't understand it at all.....
    • TimothyVdp1
      TimothyVdp1
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.12.2007 Posts: 5,820
      Originally posted by shloogy
      wow timothy u need to work a bit on ur english mate, thanks for the explanation but i couldn't understand it at all.....
      what do you mean?
      It's just hard to explain :D
    • shloogy
      shloogy
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 263
      "if his ATS is higher for the same PFR then his UTG raising range is tighter then when his ATS is lower with the same PFR "

      "for the same..." what do u mean for the same? or did u mean "or the same as his PFR.."???

      "...then" = than

      ..."tighter then when his ATS is lower with the same PFR " one big mystery.
    • TimothyVdp1
      TimothyVdp1
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.12.2007 Posts: 5,820
      Originally posted by shloogy
      "if his ATS is higher for the same PFR then his UTG raising range is tighter then when his ATS is lower with the same PFR "

      "for the same..." what do u mean for the same? or did u mean "or the same as his PFR.."???

      "...then" = than

      ..."tighter then when his ATS is lower with the same PFR " one big mystery.
      for the same=if its the same (maybe this is my dutch being translated a little bit wrong but I think it's a valid expression :) )
      then=than ok my bad :)

      What I mean
      If you have 2 players with the same PFR
      one has an ATS of 15 and the other guy has an ATS of 40
      u can easily see that when the 15dude raises UTG he has a looser range than the 40 dude since most (or more)of his PFR comes from steals.
      and it's still a forum so no need for perfect english imo :D