[NL20-NL50] NL25: Overpair vs turn-ship

    • Apsalar
      Apsalar
      Gold
      Joined: 25.01.2008 Posts: 1,900
      MP: $10.73
      CO: $18.77 (63/14/2.9/65 hands/19 WTS/43 W$SD)
      BTN: $28.53
      SB: $29.91
      BB: $57.36
      Hero (UTG): $26.58

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with T :heart: T :spade:
      Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) 9 :spade: 2 :heart: 6 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.32, CO calls $1.32

      Turn: ($4.49) 6 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.50, CO raises to $16.70 all in, Hero?

      Flop standard cbet und villain called.
      Der turn paired die 6. Ich bette erneut und villain shipped all-in.

      Tjo, villain war schon einigermaßen fishy allerdings sein WTS+W$SD waren eigentlich ganz ordentlich - zumindest auf die 65 Hände. Er hat auch relativ viel (67%) auf Cbets gefolded, dh irgendwas hat er wohl getroffen.

      Gegen folgende solide range hätt ich grad mal 26%.


      Board: 9:spade: 2:heart: 6:club:  6:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    25.85%  25.85%   0.00% { ThTs }
      MP3    74.15%  74.15%   0.00% { JJ, 99, 22, A9s, A6s, 76s, 65s, A9o, A6o, 76o, 65o }


      Sobald er aber mal sowas wie K9, Q9 oder turned flush-draws so spielt, wirds ein call... was meint ihr?
  • 2 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      I have only just started learning some German and unfortunately I don't know half of what you said there plus (I understand the English part :P ) I have no idea how to respond in German. I'll just give my opinion overall.

      Your flop and turn play are all OK imo. You just don't have good odds to call with TT there. Even if he plays some flushdraws that way he actually has better equity with those than with A9 so the fewer 9x he has the worse for you. Apart from that, if he doesn't 3bet preflop almost at all, he could show up with JJ-AA here, not just JJ alone. I don't like calling with marginal hand vs turn raises against unknowns in general so this is a snap fold imo.
    • Apsalar
      Apsalar
      Gold
      Joined: 25.01.2008 Posts: 1,900
      Ow, I'm sry, it seems that I've ended up in the wrong forum - and I was already wondering where the hell my posts had gone to! ;)

      Thanks for having a look at the hand anyway!

      I stated that the play on the flop and turn are more or less standard - until he ships all-in.
      Overall, he was quite fishy apart from his rather reasonable WTS (19) and his W$SD (43) - that was also the reason why the spot is troubling me.

      You're right that he wasn't 3betting like hell, that's why I put JJ in his range - however, I still think that he would 3bet KK+, even though that's just an assumption.

      Since his fold-to-cbet is rather high, I thinkt hat he has hit at least something from the board or already got a made hand - which would also fit to his turn-shove. The only real draw he might play this way would probably be 87:spade: .

      So, overall, I think you're right and it is a fold.