[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH T8s - bet/fold river w flush?

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($25.86)
      Hero ($47.13)
      UTG ($19.73)
      UTG+1 ($24.50)
      CO ($20.80)
      BTN ($20)

      Dealt to Hero T:heart: 8:heart:

      UTG calls $0.20, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.10, Hero checks

      FLOP ($0.60) 6:heart: A:heart: J:heart:

      SB checks, Hero bets $1, UTG folds, SB calls $1

      TURN ($2.60) 6:heart: A:heart: J:heart: 8:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $3.40, SB calls $3.40

      RIVER ($9.40) 6:heart: A:heart: J:heart: 8:spade: K:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $9.40, SB raises to $18.80, Hero calls $9.40

      37/11/1.6 69 hands

      On the river I need to win 20% of the time at least. He is not having bluff there for sure. Can he have weaker flush? Can he have straigth? Slowplayed 66, AJ, A6, A8, J8?
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Speed,

      Sb has potentially one of the widest ranges so it can include any Kx, Qx, and lower flushes along with perhaps some two pair like KhJ, Kh8, etc.

      What I would recommend you do here is right down all the combos that have us beat.

      Then those combos can make up a max of 80% of all hands he raises here so we will know roughly how many combos of worse hands he needs to have.

      Since there aren't that many better flushes I'd imagine he only needs to raise a handfull of worse hands to be ok to call here.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Khxh and Qhxh had us beat, which is 23 combos. AK, AQ should raise preflop ,so its 21 combo.

      If I put him on this raising range (best case for us):

      Khxh, Qhxh, Aj, KJ, A6,66, JJ, J6 - its 86 cobos. So this is very good.

      If only slowplayed sets AA, JJ, 66 raise then its 41 combo. Still ok.

      But this might be that those sets raise earlier.

      Lets say only worse hand raises which hits K on river - which would be KJ. (AK, AQ raise preflop lets say). Then its 36 combos. I am having there 41% eq. High. But the question is - is he raising at all two pair here vs my sizing? He might smell flush and just call.

      Forgot QT hand. IF we assume only worse is a straight who riases, then we have 39 combos. And having 52% eq.

      So if worse hand raises then its ok to call. If it raises :) and if he is calling turn bet with GS on such board?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      Khxh and Qhxh had us beat, which is 23 combos. AK, AQ should raise preflop ,so its 21 combo.

      If I put him on this raising range (best case for us):

      Khxh, Qhxh, Aj, KJ, A6,66, JJ, J6 - its 86 cobos. So this is very good.

      If only slowplayed sets AA, JJ, 66 raise then its 41 combo. Still ok.

      But this might be that those sets raise earlier.

      Lets say only worse hand raises which hits K on river - which would be KJ. (AK, AQ raise preflop lets say). Then its 36 combos. I am having there 41% eq. High. But the question is - is he raising at all two pair here vs my sizing? He might smell flush and just call.

      Forgot QT hand. IF we assume only worse is a straight who riases, then we have 39 combos. And having 52% eq.

      So if worse hand raises then its ok to call. If it raises :) and if he is calling turn bet with GS on such board?
      He can call GS on the turn if he has a flush draw to go with it and a good amount of them do.

      So the idea here was that with this exercise we kinda see worse case versus regular case versus best case and overall we aren't doing too bad.

      Of course we will get shown a few better hands and he may not raise weak 2p but he should have enough worse for us to be able to call.