[NL2-NL10] ako

    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      SB ($5.60)
      BB ($5.44)
      Hero ($5)
      UTG+1 ($3.67)
      CO ($4.03)
      BTN ($5.56)

      Dealt to Hero K:club: A:heart:

      Hero raises to $0.17, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.53, Hero calls $0.36

      FLOP ($1.08) K:spade: 8:diamond: A:diamond:

      BB bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55

      TURN ($2.18) K:spade: 8:diamond: A:diamond: 6:diamond:

      BB bets $1.84, Hero raises to $3.92 (AI), BB calls $2.08

      RIVER ($10.02) K:spade: 8:diamond: A:diamond: 6:diamond: 6:spade:

      BB shows A:spade: A:club:
      (Pre 93%, Flop 99.9%, Turn 100.0%)

      Hero shows K:club: A:heart:
      (Pre 7%, Flop 0.1%, Turn 0.0%)

      BB wins $9.36

  • 3 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      So preflop our opponent doesn't really 3bet much so flatting and playing IP is fine.

      Postflop looks good. We can't really fold our top two pairs here.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Check my ramblings because i am not sure about this at all ;)

      Should i call in the first place ? i know ak blocks out half of the aa,kk combinations but our implied is bad, and presumably we going broke on any k or a. and he is not going broke with anything worse

      We obviously not committing much to to pot on miss but if we hit A
      AA,AKs,AKo goes broke against us with us being 43/57 underdog,

      Same is true if we hit kk with 33/67 underdog against
      KK+,AKs,AKo

      3/4 major situations :

      No a or k
      67%
      He cbets we fold?

      12/24 bluff
      12/24 value


      only A
      17%
      7/16 tie or better
      7/16 cbets
      1/16 better

      Assuming he only cbets these we don't have odds to call, and if we call the flop we should go broke which should be legit against most players.

      only k
      17%
      10/16 tie or better
      10/16 cbets
      4/16 better

      A and k
      1%~

      2 better
      4 tie
      6 doesn't cbet

      35/65 underdog again

      Of course assumed he has QQ+,AKs,AKo his stat points to JJ+,AQs+,AQo+ but i rather believe he got lucky more because i would doubt nit like him has loose 3b range for value, or he is bluffing utg from bb at all.

      Without making this way too long i assume he doesn't cbets overall 13% of the time,
      that is when we take away the pot ignoring possibility for slowplaying, when we hit the board we put the money in behind, and if we don't we should float non a or k board every time and bet river if he checks twice folding his ak, so i really doubt we have a value call pre. With initiative and position it's an easy decision to 3b him especially considering his loose call to it and fit or fold postflop style when not pfa. I rather call with pp and float non a or k board, and folding to any bet after that.
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello again,

      I like your thoughts here.

      I think calling preflop here is rather good than bad.
      By he stats we see that he cbets 100% in 3bet pots and just 2/5 time on turn (overall). Also his AFq doesn't look high, so we can assume that he's probably just firing one bullet and giving up most of the time.
      Also, he might end up having AQ as well, which we dominate and is likely to go broke it.
      I do agree that the fact that he 3bets vs UTG should worry us, but then I think that overall flatting here is good considering that we can outplay him postflop.

      Best,
      Plamen