[NL2-NL10] Rush NL2 SH, A9s vs. min-3bet

    • Th334
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $2.35 (117.5 bb)
      SB: $4.94 (247 bb)
      BB: $1.50 (75 bb)
      UTG: $3.94 (197 bb)
      Hero (MP): $2.69 (134.5 bb)
      CO: $2.10 (105 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with A 9
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.06, CO raises to $0.10, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.04

      Flop: ($0.23) 5 6 J (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.14

      Hi guys,

      The raise was a bit marginal, but when I was 3-betted like that, there was no way I could fold with 4.75:1 pot odds.

      What do you think about the flop? Vs. 1 opponent, especially in a 3-bet pot, I just play bet/fold on such a nasty board. If I check -- I give up the hand, because I will have no idea whether he has a club or not, and will have to fold even with an ace on the turn.

      Is it +EV to donk/fold on a flush board in such spots without any particular reads?


  • 3 replies
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      I prefer folding A9s from MP.
      When we got min3beted I think calling is good.

      It's an easy check/fold on the flop. No need to donk here without having any information.

    • Th334
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Plamen, I was just thinking...

      With a very high confidence, when he has no clubs he folds.

      Then, what is our chances of him not having a club? Seems like more than 60% of the time he won't have any.

      Then, we can assume that our FE is >60%, can't we? But our bluff needs to work only 38% of the time.

      Isn't it a potentially huge profit right here? :f_biggrin:
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      5 cards are shown (3 from flop, 2 from your hole cards). 3 clubs are revealed so there are 10 clubs left. 52-5=47

      What are the chances that villain has no clubs in his range?
      37/47 X 36/46 = 61.6%

      So yes, you are right that he doesnt have clubs that much. HOWEVER
      1) He is not folding his overpairs without a club
      2) He could bluff raise your donk-bet

      Are you that certain your fold equity is 60%+? I dont think so