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[NL2-NL10] bet sizing on monotone board

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2035469
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $5.40 - VPIP: 63, PFR: 9, 3B: 6, AF: 3.7, Hands: 116 WTS:34, FtoCB:50
      UTG: $19.25 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 9, 3B: 4, AF: 1.1, Hands: 869
      CO: $7.09 - VPIP: 58, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 210
      BTN: $12.50 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 12, 3B: 6, AF: 2.5, Hands: 129
      Hero (SB): $7.83 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2.0, Hands: 68570

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with Q :heart: A :heart:
      1 fold, CO calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.25, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.65) Q :diamond: A :diamond: 6 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.62, BB calls $0.62

      Turn: ($1.89) 4 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero?

      On one hand I'd like to push for maximum protection. BUT it isnt the most +ev line I think. It's better to bet something like 1.5$, and if the river is :diamond: , I fold. He is a major-major underdog, a FD having only like 9 outs, so I dont want him to fold here, right, I WANT him to call, so I MUST NOT push.
      I think it's a mistake betting too much vs draws. If we can fold it they hit, they have NO implied odds, hence they are making a mistake.
      If we PUSH, they fold their FD here, so they arent making any mistakes, hence we arent making any money.
  • 8 replies
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,973
      Well a recreational player won't think of betsizing that much tbh, I would bomb big flop and turn and we can bet river smallish on blank.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Imimba,

      Preflop: Looks fine

      Flop: You keep saying Push or bet 1.5. When you say push you mean overbet shove right?

      In that case I would probably not do the overbet shove but nothing stops us from close to potting here.

      There's one other piece you may be missing: villains range is NOT only draws. He can have a ton of Ax hands.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by Imimba1
      If we PUSH, they fold their FD here, so they arent making any mistakes, hence we arent making any money.
      That's the point :pokerface: :)

      ...unless he makes a huuuge mistake and call the push with a draw :D in this case we make a lot of money. It's quite unlikely though, even for a fish.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi Imimba,

      Preflop: Looks fine

      Flop: You keep saying Push or bet 1.5. When you say push you mean overbet shove right?

      In that case I would probably not do the overbet shove but nothing stops us from close to potting here.

      There's one other piece you may be missing: villains range is NOT only draws. He can have a ton of Ax hands.
      +1
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      +1, true, he can have weaker Ax hands, he is passive
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by Imimba1
      +1, true, he can have weaker Ax hands, he is passive
      +1
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by Imimba1
      Originally posted by Imimba1
      +1, true, he can have weaker Ax hands, he is passive
      +1
      You seem to really like yourself :f_biggrin:

      Or do you have a split personality, and it was just the second part agreeing with the first one? :f_biggrin:
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Well, sometimes I like myself for no perticular reason. :)