[NL2-NL10] rush poker nl10 sh AK donkey or variance?

    • Uldis90
      Joined: 27.03.2010 Posts: 64
      80 hands; vp25; pfr 16; 3bet 6.3, fold to 3b 0/2; ag.1; flop cbet 3/3, fold to flop cbet 3/6

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($7.81)
      BB ($9.65)
      UTG ($5)
      Hero ($23.47)
      CO ($14.90)
      BTN ($30.96)

      Dealt to Hero K:club: A:diamond:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, BTN raises to $0.80, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.55, BTN calls $1.75

      FLOP ($5.25) 8:club: K:heart: 4:spade:

      Hero bets $2.70, BTN calls $2.70

      TURN ($10.65) 8:club: K:heart: 4:spade: 8:heart:

      Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

      RIVER ($20.65) 8:club: K:heart: 4:spade: 8:heart: 9:heart:

      Hero bets $13.22 (AI), BTN calls $13.22

      Hero shows K:club: A:diamond:
      (Pre 60%, Flop 75.7%, Turn 4.5%)

      BTN shows 8:spade: 5:spade:
      (Pre 40%, Flop 24.3%, Turn 95.5%)

      BTN wins $45.09

      was there any chance for me to get away from this hand? i cant realy put him on 8 after turn brings 8h, since i have AK then AA and KK is also unliklely. so when river comes 9h there is no chence of having flush. so i bet the riverand hoped he didnt show up with 99, i tought if i check river he might check back his QQ or JJ if he had them.
      i want to know if i played this hand like compleat donkey or its just variance and i couldnt get away from it? i know i wont get spot like this in 500k hands
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Uldis,

      Preflop: Considering how deep we are here are we 4-betting for value or bluff?

      Postflop: Flop/turn looks fine but on the river what exactly do we expect villain to put in 130 BB with?

      I don't think JJ/QQ will call a 3-barrel here.