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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 50 AQ TP too thin on the river vs nit?

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      On Game, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $42.15 (84.3 bb)
      BTN: $66.23 (132.5 bb)
      SB: $62.94 (125.9 bb)
      BB: $61.38 (122.8 bb)
      Hero (MP): $49.25 (98.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with Q A
      Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 3 folds

      Flop: ($4.25) 6 8 A (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50

      Turn: ($9.25) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.30, CO calls $6.30

      River: ($21.85) 2 (2 players)
      Hero bets $11.50, CO raises to $31.60, Hero folds

      $44.85 pot ($2.24 rake)
      Final Board: 6 8 A 7 2
      CO mucked and won $42.61 ($20.56 net)
      Hero mucked Q A and lost (-$22.05 net)

      I can prolly get value from AJs and ATs and I think he is likely to 3bet AK preflop.

      But he can also be slowplaying 2pair/set as the board ran out pretty dry.

      What do you think, too thin/ -EV on the river?
  • 2 replies
    • getdotacom
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 608
      Definitely bet it if u expect him to 3bet AK pre and he's calling with AT-AJ. U don't have many hands on him, but his river agg freq is 57 which is super high. I'd look him up there, he reps very few combos and might jam there super lite because of your sizing. That 1/2 looks weak, so u should expect him to raise a lot. Just call and make a note, he will be bluffing there sometimes and u have to be good 1/4 times.
    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975

      I expect a tight guy like him to only get to the river with very good hands which I think always explains high river agg frequencies in spots like this. Can you give some more arguments because I always give these guys credit and I fold all but the nuts usually.