[NL20-NL50] KQo TP on paired board 3way

    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Gold
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,586
      Prima, $0.20/$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $41.19 (103 bb)
      BTN: $51.82 (129.5 bb)
      SB: $101.33 (253.3 bb)
      BB: $21.93 (54.8 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $62.13 (155.3 bb)
      MP: $44.59 (111.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q:diamond: K:club:
      Hero raises to $1.40, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.40, SB calls $1.20, BB folds

      Flop: ($4.60) T:club: T:spade: Q:heart: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2.80, BTN calls $2.80, SB folds

      Turn: ($10.20) 2:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

      River: ($22.20) 2:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $15.20, Hero folds

      Results: $22.20 pot ($1.11 rake)
      Final Board: T:club: T:spade: Q:heart: 2:diamond: 2:heart:
      BTN mucked and won $21.09 ($10.89 net)
      Hero mucked Q:diamond: K:club: and lost (-$10.20 net)

      31/10 34% agg. freq 44 hands

      Flop and turn sizing?

      OTR, perhaps, is better to block bet/fold? Smth. like 7$-8$ for value from Qx and maybe even lower PP should be fine?

      He can also have KJ or J9 and if i don`t want to ch/c, i should bet...
  • 6 replies
    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Gold
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,586
      MP2 56.44% 53.47% 2.97% KcQd
      MP3 43.56% 40.59% 2.97% TT-88, AQs, ATs, KTs+, QJs, Q9s-Q7s, J9s+, T7s+, AQo, ATo, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+

      If this is his river range(101 combos), ha has:

      1. 28 combos busted draws
      2. 40 combos 88-99 and Qx. I beat 26 combos, split with 6 and lose to 8.
      3. 33 combos trips+

      I. If i bet 7$ OTR and:

      1. He folds his busted draws 28% and i win 22,2$
      2. He calls with weaker hands 26% and i win 29,2$
      4. He calls or raises with stronger hands 41% and i lose 7$

      EV = 0.28*22.2 + 0.26*29.2 - 0.41*7= +10,95$

      II. If he bets all his missed draws and trips+

      MP2 45.90% 45.90% 0.00% KcQd
      MP3 54.10% 54.10% 0.00% TT, ATs, KJs-KTs, J9s+, T7s+, ATo, KJo-KTo, QTo, J9o+

      EV=0.46*37.4 - .54*15.2= +8,99$

      Also i don`t know if he has all combos KJ and J9 and if he will bet them.

      => bet/fold river ?
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      What about when he checks river and you have the best hand against 88, 99, maybe JJ, QJ, etc.? You seem to think he will always bet when you check, in which case you should compare the same range you gave him initially when you call.

      I do think he checks back some Qx hands and middle pairs in his range and can't really know how often he bluffs but try this:

      Make a best and worst case scenario for him betting his bluffs... take 10% and like 90% of bluffs and see what that tells you. If 90% will be close, you can't check/call, if 10% is a snap call, then you can snap call all day long.

      If neither is great, we can discuss other options of playing the hand and the reasoning for that.
    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Gold
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,586
      I assigned him polazised range for betting the river (trips+ and bluffs).
      With 10% bluffs is a fold, with 90% is a call and with 50% is BE.

      I agree that he is probably checking the river with Qx and middle pairs - 40 combos or 40% of his range. I beat 26 combos, split with 6 and lose to 8.
      => Worst case (if he always bet missed draws) i win the pot 26% of the time.
      EV = 0.26*22.1 +0.06 = +5.75$
      Is this calculation correct?

      Still bet/folding seems to have most EV if the assumptions in my previous post are correct.

      Chech/fold seems to be the second best choice.

      Chech/call will be close and probably i don`t need to do it.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      EV calcs give me a headache usually so bare with me. Will also ask someone to have a second look.

      The approximate range I think he gets to the river with (intenationally made it 100 combos for simplicity but we can add value/bluffs it would get to the same ratio imo and from initial post I think you agree with the range)


      Board: T:club: T:spade: Q:heart:  2:heart:  2:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    55.95%  52.95%   3.00% { KcQd }
      MP3    44.05%  41.06%   3.00% { JJ-77, AQs, ATs, KTs+, Q8s+, J9s+, T7s+, AQo, ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, Jh9d }



      I assume he folds 41 combos of air and midpairs so folds 41% of the time when we bet.


      Board: T:club: T:spade: Q:heart:  2:heart:  2:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2   100.00% 100.00%   0.00% { KcQd }
      MP3     0.00%   0.00%   0.00% { JJ, 99-77, KJs, QTs, J9s, KJo, Jh9d }



      EV(fold) = 22.20 => 0.41*22.20 = 9.1

      Calling range when you bet:


      Board: T:club: T:spade: Q:heart:  2:heart:  2:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    57.66%  46.11%  11.55% { KcQd }
      MP3    42.34%  30.80%  11.55% { AQs, KQs, Q8s+, AQo, KQo, QJo }


      26 combos of that.

      EV(call) = 36.2*0.576 = 20.85
      26 combos = > 5.42

      Raising:

      Board: T:club: T:spade: Q:heart:  2:heart:  2:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2     0.00%   0.00%   0.00% { KcQd }
      MP3   100.00% 100.00%   0.00% { TT, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T7s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }



      EV(raise) = -7 => 0.33 * (-7) = -2.31

      EV = 9.1 + 5.42 - 2.31 = 12.21

      If sizing doesn't change his calling and raising range, your EV will remain the same.

      If you check, you check/call against his polarized range. First of all, you win when he checks a certain amount of the time:



      Board: T:club: T:spade: Q:heart:  2:heart:  2:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    77.97%  71.96%   6.01% { KcQd }
      MP3    22.03%  16.02%   6.01% { JJ, 99-77, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s-Q8s, AQo, KQo, QJo }


      He checks 50% of the time.

      EV(check) = 22.20 * 0.78 = 17.31 => 0.5*17.31 = 8.65

      There are 50 combinations left in his range, some nuts and some air. He has 33 nut combos which are 66%.

      Nuts:

      Board: T:club: T:spade: Q:heart:  2:heart:  2:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2     0.00%   0.00%   0.00% { KcQd }
      MP3   100.00% 100.00%   0.00% { TT, ATs, KTs, JTs, T7s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }


      EV(betnuts) = -15.20 * 0.66 = - 10.03

      This means you need to make up for 12.21 < 8.65 - 10.3 + EV(betair).

      12.21 < -1.65 + EV(betair)

      EV(betair) > 13.65 so that check/calling is better than bet/folding.

      Let's see what EV(betair) looks like.

      EV(betair) = x (unknown frequency) * 52.6.

      13.65 = 52.6x => x = 31.6% so we need him to bluff almost ALL his busted draws since there are 33% left in his bluff combos. That's just to be BE. If he bets larger we get worse odds so we need more bluffs if he bets smaller we need fewer bluffs.

      Hope I didn't screw up (too much, there are bound to be some small mistakes here since I'm actually coming down with a headache :D ). I'm not much of a maths guy in such very very close spots because what maths will tell you is that both action are very very close in EV but it mostly depends on your opponent.

      What I recommend is that whenever checking and betting is close in EV, just bet, get aggressive, you get a better image and they might actually call worse than you expect when you vbet so thin, because they look at frequency and forget you can be polarized or depolarized with your frequency.

      I'm off to bed now! GOOD NIGHT! :f_biggrin:
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      Ehh, I wouldn't bother with so specif calculations here. Just do it easy way.

      1.He folds 41% of his range, so betting definitely is +EV with that sizing.
      2.U calculated that c/c is b/e when he bluffs all his busted draws.

      So betting should be better especially when he will call by worse sometimes :)

      I just took a quick look to these calculations, but I think u didn't add any bluffs to his raising range. If he doesn't bluff, this should be fine, but he does most likely and it will change all the frequencies because some folds will go to his raising range.

      U can use one interesting rule here - if u beat at least 12 combos of his calling range bet, otherwise check. Not sure where does this come from and how correct is it, but I've heard that it works :)
    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Gold
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,586
      Thank you very much for the detailed analysis! :)

      p.p. Sorry for bringing you a headache. :(