[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH - 44: set

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      MP reg

      23/21/4.4af
      3% call open sb
      50% wwsf
      28% wtsd
      47% w$sd
      3% squeeze
      3.6k hands


      BB: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
      UTG: $10.75 (43 bb)
      MP: $26.67 (106.7 bb)
      Hero (CO): $27.68 (110.7 bb)
      BTN: $10 (40 bb)
      SB: $25.10 (100.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 4:club: 4:heart:
      UTG folds, MP raises to $0.62, Hero calls $0.62, BTN folds, SB calls $0.52, BB folds

      Flop: ($2.11) 2:club: T:diamond: 8:spade: (3 players)
      SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($2.11) 4:diamond: (3 players)
      SB bets $1.32, MP folds, Hero raises to $4, SB raises to $24.48 and is all-in, Hero :evil:
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      3 combinations of 22, 3 combos of 88. Does he have T8s in his range? Does he squeeze TT preflop? It's just a question of seeing how you do against his value range. You might be able to include 2-3 strong bluff combos like J9dd, QJdd, A5dd, etc.

      Input a worst and best scenario in equilab and see what's up! ;)
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      Best:

      Board: T:diamond: 8:spade: 2:club:  4:diamond:
             Equity  Vencer  Empate
      MP2    51.05%  51.05%   0.00% { TT, 88, 22, T8s, QdJd, Jd9d }
      MP3    48.95%  48.95%   0.00% { 44 }



      Worst:

      Board: T:diamond: 8:spade: 2:club:  4:diamond:
             Equity  Vencer  Empate
      MP2    65.91%  65.91%   0.00% { TT, 88, 22 }
      MP3    34.09%  34.09%   0.00% { 44 }



      40% pot odds +-.

      So will be close i guess.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Very close but you are also top of your range pluuuus, there is some spazz factor/overplay possibilty when facing fishier players. This might not be fishy but you didn't say he is a reg either.

      One final thing to consider is: if you give him 44 and yourself a set in his spots, money is still going in so you don't lose in the long run when this spot comes up and you face another set.