[NL20-NL50] J9s TPNK on draw heavy board vs river overbet

    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Gold
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,562
      Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): $37.40 (187 bb)
      BB: $17.87 (89.4 bb)
      UTG: $15.82 (79.1 bb)
      MP: $21.38 (106.9 bb)
      CO: $20 (100 bb)
      BTN: $23.42 (117.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 9:spade: J:spade:
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BB calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.20) 7:diamond: 4:diamond: J:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.90, BB calls $0.90

      Turn: ($3) 2:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.10, BB calls $2.10

      River: ($7.20) 6:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $14.27 and is all-in, Hero folds

      Results: $7.20 pot ($0.36 rake)
      Final Board: 7:diamond: 4:diamond: J:heart: 2:heart: 6:club:
      Hero mucked 9:spade: J:spade: and lost (-$3.60 net)
      BB mucked and won $6.84 ($3.24 net)

      30/15, 30% agg.freq., fold to Cbet 71%(7), 91hands

      My initial plan was to bet 2 streets vs draws and check/call the river if the draws miss. Is this ok plan?

      I was snap calling potsize bet, but i don`t think he is bluffing with this overbet shove?
  • 8 replies
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      Hi,

      I would probably not fold the river. Would he really overbet ship a value hand? Does not seem very likely, and he can certainly have lots of busted draws. Call and expect to be good at least 50%, when we do lose it's prob to 85dd or a set I guess.

      ifs
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by imfromsweden007
      Hi,

      I would probably not fold the river. Would he really overbet ship a value hand? Does not seem very likely, and he can certainly have lots of busted draws. Call and expect to be good at least 50%, when we do lose it's prob to 85dd or a set I guess.

      ifs
      The problem is that overbets are rarely bluffs on microstakes.
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      From regs, sure, but fish can just spazzshove all-in with weirder ranges. So not folding.
    • Phgrinder
      Phgrinder
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 1,002
      so you think calling here is fine although a bit thin?

      i am also leaning towards a fold here, after noticing that villain folds to 71% of the time ( even though small sample ) so he's probably not c/c a flush draw unless its A or K flush :/ probably one of my leaks though.

      you think bet folding is better on the river instead of ch / c???

      bet folding allows us to lose a small chunk instead of ch / c and giving us a hard time against a range of nuts / air vs us in this spot?

      if we bet fold here were already behind JT++ and if we ch / c its going to be the same range + random bluffs right?
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      You point about his high fold to cbet is valid, we can no longer expect him to show up with random gutshots anymore, but no f**** way he folds a FD on the flop :) I can certainly see a 30/15 call twice with 56 or a FD for sure.

      I don't think bet/folding is better. I think he has a lot of busted draws etc compared to the J8 kinds of hands, which means we lose value by bet/folding compared to check/calling.

      Your last point is not correct, since when he bets this sizing we can actually discount a large portion of his value range, he almost certainly wouldn't bet like this with JT-AJ so a large portion of his valuerange disappears!
    • Phgrinder
      Phgrinder
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 1,002
      thanks. i get the last part now.
    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Gold
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,562
      A8s pair+FD turn and river?

      I had a similar hand today and the result was pretty unexpected...
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      No that spot is different. The main difference is that he bets the turn instead of going for the free cards. Most fish when they have a draw they just wanna call or check if they get the chance. That makes that hand a snapfold and this hand a call.