InsuredPlay concept (insuring our all ins)

    • DrKillByDeath187
      DrKillByDeath187
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.05.2012 Posts: 52
      Hello, I recently came across an interesting site that claims to insure our all ins (for a small premium and a fee).
      This is how they explain on their site;

      Flop: QT2

      KK is all-in on the flop with 80% equity in the $100 pot
      AQ calls and KK gets automatically insured for $20
      Ace drops on the river and KK loses the hand
      KK gets $100 in his account on InsuredPlay

      Will they be able to sustain this and is this worth looking into for someone who is grinding out a large number of hands?
  • 15 replies
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,925
      Hey DrKillByDeath187,

      As with any Insurance company I am sure they are not doing this out of the goodness of their heart. There is obviously more money in it for them, than you.

      That being said, I know nothing of this personally but I've heard about said companies before.



      Regards,
      Gary
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      If you truly believe that in the long run your winnings will merge or be close to your EV line then this insurance will cost you in the long run cause of the fee.

      Variance also is not just measured by EV, EV measures a very small percentage of variance, There is so much unaccounted variance, for example how many times you're dealt aces, how many setups are you dealt, how many times you move in on the river and lose cause villian hit miraculous river etc. which aren't measured through All in EV.

      So this seems like a short term fix which will definitely cost you in the long run.

      I think better insurance would be to play with a deeper bankroll.
    • crisabsynt
      crisabsynt
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.01.2011 Posts: 7,044
      I use InsuredPlay. I play at NL2 FR MSS.

      I pay 0,25 % fee /hand, but if the pot is under 2 $, i should not pay fee, because the amount of fee is very little.

      I think for me it is absolutely worth it, beacuse I can bring my "A" game, and dont care how money all-in bad beat comes. :D

      I don't tilt when I suffer a bad beat, because I get my equity % money from the pot.
    • vuciitis
      vuciitis
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.02.2011 Posts: 1,314
      as i am not smart enough yet to really understand what maheepsangari wrote, ill ask as a beginner one more time- so, if i have positive EV line and i run below it, i should get payed by this ensurence company the difference? so basicly my winnings togeather would make almost excact as my EV line as long as it is positive..?
    • 3prswins
      3prswins
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2011 Posts: 204
      Originally posted by vuciitis
      as i am not smart enough yet to really understand what maheepsangari wrote, ill ask as a beginner one more time- so, if i have positive EV line and i run below it, i should get payed by this ensurence company the difference? so basicly my winnings togeather would make almost excact as my EV line as long as it is positive..?
      Yes, however over a big enough sample your winnings and ev line should/will meet. When this does eventually happen, you will have won the amount you was expected to.

      Now if you have the insurance then when your winnings meet your EV line then you will have won less than you was expected to because of the insurance fees.

      imo a big enough sample size negates the need for insurance.

      Cheers :f_thumbsup:
    • cordaci
      cordaci
      Black
      Joined: 11.08.2011 Posts: 305
      Originally posted by crisabsynt
      I use InsuredPlay. I play at NL2 FR MSS.

      I pay 0,25 % fee /hand, but if the pot is under 2 $, i should not pay fee, because the amount of fee is very little.

      I think for me it is absolutely worth it, beacuse I can bring my "A" game, and dont care how money all-in bad beat comes. :D

      I don't tilt when I suffer a bad beat, because I get my equity % money from the pot.
      dunno what`s worst, the fact that after so many forum posts and 1 year member you are still at nl 2, the fact that you are not playing with a full stack or the fact that you need to use insurance there :)

      besides that i guess the good thing about insured play is when you move up stakes and get sucked on you don`t tilt and can play your A game
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Will having such "insurance" change your play?

      Having this safety net might have you make otherwise -EV plays just because you'll get paid off if you lose.

      Look at it another way.

      If this scheme is +EV for the insurance company, then it definitely is NOT +EV for you!

      If they they take a fee -- no matter how small -- they can only ever return a portion of it. They have overhead costs, and they have to make a profit.

      Therefore, OVER THE LONG TERM you cannot possibly come out ahead with such a scheme.

      Unless of course you're running it.
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      Originally posted by 3prswins
      Originally posted by vuciitis
      as i am not smart enough yet to really understand what maheepsangari wrote, ill ask as a beginner one more time- so, if i have positive EV line and i run below it, i should get payed by this ensurence company the difference? so basicly my winnings togeather would make almost excact as my EV line as long as it is positive..?
      Yes, however over a big enough sample your winnings and ev line should/will meet. When this does eventually happen, you will have won the amount you was expected to.

      Now if you have the insurance then when your winnings meet your EV line then you will have won less than you was expected to because of the insurance fees.

      imo a big enough sample size negates the need for insurance.

      Cheers :f_thumbsup:
      That's just plain wrong
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      I was actually trying to drive home a bigger point that All In EV to begin with isn't even an accurate measure of variance, infact its far from it.

      In a sample of 700k hands I have gone all in preflop/flop/turn a total of 4012 times meaning 0.57% of the times. That means the difference in my EV line and Winnings line is only thanks to 0.57% of the hands. No way that huge variance in poker can be measured only thanks to such a small percentage of hands.

      Now look at it this way, on an average I go all preflop/flop/turn in roughly once every 200 or so hands. Say if my true win rate is 4bb/100 and Std dev is 80bb/100 then there is a 95% chance that I will be somewhere between +234bb and -218bb. That is the variance in my game. Any insurance product against variance should help me hedge this risk. However in these 200 hands there is just 1 hand that will contribute to the difference in All in EV line and Winnings line and no way that the one hand can capture the variance accurately.

      So since the concept of All in EV in the first place is not accurate measure of variance, any insurance product based purely on All in EV won't be an accurate hedge to variance either.
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Originally posted by 3prswins
      Originally posted by vuciitis
      as i am not smart enough yet to really understand what maheepsangari wrote, ill ask as a beginner one more time- so, if i have positive EV line and i run below it, i should get payed by this ensurence company the difference? so basicly my winnings togeather would make almost excact as my EV line as long as it is positive..?
      Yes, however over a big enough sample your winnings and ev line should/will meet. When this does eventually happen, you will have won the amount you was expected to.

      Now if you have the insurance then when your winnings meet your EV line then you will have won less than you was expected to because of the insurance fees.

      imo a big enough sample size negates the need for insurance.

      Cheers :f_thumbsup:
      :facepalm:

      No. It's called variance. Having a big sample does not magically put your winnings together with your EV. Even over a million hands you can run way below or above EV.

      Take a look at these videos to get more of an idea on this: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/#searchtext=mental%20game&key=all&contenttype=0&gametype=0&tablesize=0&languages=en&levels=basic,bronze,silver,gold,platinum,diamond&lowerlimit=0&upperlimit=100&ob=date&od=desc&page=1&rpp=10
    • JimC6
      JimC6
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2011 Posts: 458
      Originally posted by crisabsynt
      I use InsuredPlay. I play at NL2 FR MSS.

      I pay 0,25 % fee /hand, but if the pot is under 2 $, i should not pay fee, because the amount of fee is very little.

      I think for me it is absolutely worth it, beacuse I can bring my "A" game, and dont care how money all-in bad beat comes. :D

      I don't tilt when I suffer a bad beat, because I get my equity % money from the pot.

      Do you really freeroll on the insurance at NL2? How big does the pot have to be before you have to pay a fee?
    • crisabsynt
      crisabsynt
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.01.2011 Posts: 7,044
      I play MSS with 0,80$ buy in.

      In case of all-in, the pot is usually about 1,6 $

      I'm LEvel 5 on Isuredplay, so i have to pay 0,25 % fee

      1,6 $ /100 = 0,016 $

      0,016 $ is 1 % of the pot

      0,016 $/4 = 0,004 $

      0,004 $ is 0,25% of the pot.

      So it is very very very little number.

      An other example.

      I go all-in and 3 players call.

      Pot will be 0,80 $ *4 =3,2 $

      3,2 $ /100 = 0,032 $

      0,032 $ is 1 % of the pot

      0,032 $ / 4 = 0,008 $

      0,008$ is 0,25 % of the pot.

      So i have to pay about 0,01 $ fee from a 3,2 $ pot.

      I think it is worth for me at NL2.

      Examples:

      MSS stack. Pot is under 2 $. NO fee


      With big stack

    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,511
      It's a small fee, but still 0.25%. So it is -EV.

      I used that software in it's beta testing. It's nice when opponent sucks out, but it also means that when you win a pot you never get the full pot if there was an allin before the river. It just reduces the variance, and you pay for it. Less downswings, but less upswings too.

      And to use it you first have to deposit money to them, and they pay you from your own money. Quite genious business plan, they don't need any starting capital to run the thing, they just take that small amount of money from every allin the client does.

      It is definitely -EV in a vacuum. But if that extra safetyness makes you play better, it might turn out to be +EV overall. Or vice versa, even more -EV.

      I think the universal truth applies here: if you can't stand the swings, you play too high.
    • DrKillByDeath187
      DrKillByDeath187
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.05.2012 Posts: 52
      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      I think the universal truth applies here: if you can't stand the swings, you play too high.
      This what my original thought was, thanks for all the feedback.
    • Targetme
      Targetme
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.05.2009 Posts: 1,888
      Who on earth would bother tracking and insuring 1$ stack pots? Why would you even tilt from that "I think the universal truth applies here: if you can't stand the swings, you play too high. " But if you needinsurance with .80-1$ in play how will you ever be prepared to play higher? You need to get used to losing money to improve your mindset. The first time I lost 1k in a day is when I believe I became a pro.