[NL2-NL10] QQ fold preflop dilemma

    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $2 (100 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $2.70 (135 bb)
      MP: $5.02 (251 bb)
      CO: $0.85 (42.5 bb)
      BTN: $1.43 (71.5 bb)
      SB: $1.98 (99 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q Q
      Hero raises to $0.08, MP folds, CO raises to $0.85 and is all-in, 4 folds

      The villain is not super tight, but he doesn't look too loose either. He plays MSS (apparently), and every time he 3-bets preflop he just shoves.

      He did it a couple of times, once he even open-shoved.

      Upon a careful consideration, I decided that the only hand I'm ahead of is JJ, which is not that likely. Even with AK we almost flip.

      Is it reasonable?
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi German,

      1) What are the pot odds that we get?
      2) What possible range can you expect him to 3bet/shove? Why just JJ+, AK? What's our equity versus that shove.
      3) What's the minimum range that he needs to shove for us to show a profit calling here.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      "Nice questions here" (c) Plamen

      :f_biggrin:

      We need 48% equity to break even.

      Versus JJ+, AK we have 47%.

      If we add AQ here, we'll get 51%. I think that should be about the maximum range for us to have profit.

      I can't be sure about his actual range. He might be 3bet shoving KK+ only, and this was just a coincidence that he happened to have KK+ previously in this session.

      My thinking was: well we need him to shove JJ+,AQ+ to have some profit here. I know that he can shove tighter. Easily, on micro limits players usually shove pretty tight. I also know that he virtually cannot shove looser. It be would quite a big exception of the rule if someone shoved TT+,AJ+,KQ.

      Bearing this in mind, I decided that a safer way would be to find a magic button. We don't loose much when we fold, even if he can shove loose, our EV in this case not even big enough to find it out :)

      How do I make the thread ticked after answering your questions? :f_biggrin:

      Kidding aside, thanks Bogdan. That's exactly what I needed: a good question is always better than the best answer. In terms of learning at least.