This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL2-NL10] QQ fold preflop dilemma

    • Th334
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $2 (100 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $2.70 (135 bb)
      MP: $5.02 (251 bb)
      CO: $0.85 (42.5 bb)
      BTN: $1.43 (71.5 bb)
      SB: $1.98 (99 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q Q
      Hero raises to $0.08, MP folds, CO raises to $0.85 and is all-in, 4 folds

      The villain is not super tight, but he doesn't look too loose either. He plays MSS (apparently), and every time he 3-bets preflop he just shoves.

      He did it a couple of times, once he even open-shoved.

      Upon a careful consideration, I decided that the only hand I'm ahead of is JJ, which is not that likely. Even with AK we almost flip.

      Is it reasonable?
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi German,

      1) What are the pot odds that we get?
      2) What possible range can you expect him to 3bet/shove? Why just JJ+, AK? What's our equity versus that shove.
      3) What's the minimum range that he needs to shove for us to show a profit calling here.
    • Th334
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      "Nice questions here" (c) Plamen


      We need 48% equity to break even.

      Versus JJ+, AK we have 47%.

      If we add AQ here, we'll get 51%. I think that should be about the maximum range for us to have profit.

      I can't be sure about his actual range. He might be 3bet shoving KK+ only, and this was just a coincidence that he happened to have KK+ previously in this session.

      My thinking was: well we need him to shove JJ+,AQ+ to have some profit here. I know that he can shove tighter. Easily, on micro limits players usually shove pretty tight. I also know that he virtually cannot shove looser. It be would quite a big exception of the rule if someone shoved TT+,AJ+,KQ.

      Bearing this in mind, I decided that a safer way would be to find a magic button. We don't loose much when we fold, even if he can shove loose, our EV in this case not even big enough to find it out :)

      How do I make the thread ticked after answering your questions? :f_biggrin:

      Kidding aside, thanks Bogdan. That's exactly what I needed: a good question is always better than the best answer. In terms of learning at least.