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[NL2-NL10] NL 5 ZOOM Flush over flush

    • elchipriota
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      Preflop, player is an aggro, I know he had 3bet me with air from that spot. He plays vpip/pfr of 30,25 and goes to showdown 25%. Cbet is at 86%.

      Should I be folding my flush to his 4bet?

      I am getting 4 to 1 odds to call. If I win 20% I break even.

      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $3.25 (65 bb)
      SB: $7.77 (155.4 bb)
      BB: $12.70 (254 bb)
      UTG: $5.30 (106 bb)
      MP: $4.68 (93.6 bb)
      Hero (CO): $10.81 (216.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 8 6
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN folds, SB raises to $0.50, BB folds, Hero calls $0.35

      Flop: ($1.05) J 3 Q (2 players)
      SB bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55

      Turn: ($2.15) 7 (2 players)
      SB bets $1.30, Hero raises to $3.10, SB raises to $6.72 and is all-in, Hero calls $3.62

      River: ($15.59) A (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      $15.59 pot ($0.65 rake)
      Final Board: J 3 Q 7 A
      SB showed 5 K and won $14.94 ($7.17 net)
      Hero showed 8 6 and lost (-$7.77 net)
  • 4 replies
    • Th334
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Oh, really? I was gonna say that your steal from CO is a bit loose, but when I saw your subsequent call I was a bit surprised :)

      I would never do that with such a hand. I know, who cares? :) No, honestly, it seems like a bad call to me.

      Turn: well, do we agree that he most likely has a flush? I hope we do. He might have a set, but forget it for a second. So let's consider what flushes he might have that we beat:

      45s, and...and that's it :) Tell me, how likely he will 3-bet you with 45s preflop?

      Now, best case scenario, we can include sets into his range: try to compare your equity against all the dimonds he could have (Ax, KJ/KT, JT, T9, 54), add the sets (JJ, 33, QQ, 77), and look at your equity :) As simple as that.

      My guess is that it's not gonna be great.


    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Elchipriota,

      Preflop: You should fold this hand preflop. Even though he 3-bets a lot you will not win much with speculative hands like this. They rarely hit and even when they do the draws they hit aren't strong.

      VS aggro 3-better you want to tighten up your preflop range, 4-bet more and call with strong hands IP (pairs, suited broadways, etc).

      As played we can't fold because he may play AdA, KdK, AdK, QQ, JJ like this. But you see the value in these hands is limited at best.

      As a side note I would of semi bluff raised that flop with our 8 high.
    • elchipriota
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      Thank you bogdan.
    • Th334
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Yeah, I didn't consider FD. Equilab agrees with Bogdan.

      Vs. this:

      QQ-JJ, 77, 33, AdAh, AdAs, AdAc, KdKh, KdKs, KdKc, KdAd, QdAd, JdAd, TdAd, 9dAd, 8dAd, 7dAd, 6dAd, 5dAd, 4dAd, 3dAd, 2dAd, AdKd, KdJd, KdTd, JdTd, Td9d, 5d4d, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc

      we have 53% equity :)

      I don't know why equilab included Qd in his hand range, but I believe it is not included in equity calculation (because it's on the board).