[NL2-NL10] nl10sh ff AKo

    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      really standard spot.. villain is an unknown but is playing 26/13 over 40 hands. yeah the BU open raise stat will be larger than the average of 13, but vs unknown is it a standard stack off or a 3bet/fold? also vs a nit (maybe 15/12) what is our play here with AKo? because it feels too strong to just call with, but too weak to stack off with.

      Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $4.09 (40.9 bb)
      Hero (BB): $18.70 (187 bb)
      SB: $11.43 (114.3 bb)
      BTN: $14.05 (140.5 bb)
      CO: $8.46 (84.6 bb)
      UTG: $8.51 (85.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A K
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.20, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.90, BTN folds

      Results:
      $0.45 pot
      Hero mucked A K and won $0.45 ($0.25 net)
  • 7 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DrDunne,

      Preflop: Considering that you are 140 BB deep here I think that we need to fold to a 4-bet unless we have reasons to believe that he 4-bets light or 4-bet/calls light (AQ).

      I have an exercise for you that should help you understand these spots better.

      Take a simple example like this:

      Villain 1 (BTN): 100 BB
      Hero(BB): 100 BB

      BTN vs BB:

      Villain opens 3 BB. Hero 3-bets 10 BB. Villain 4-bets to 25 BB. Hero ?

      If we shove, assuming 0 FE and a calling range of QQ+, AK what is our expected value (it can be as simple as -, breakeven, +)

      What's the minimum FE required?

      If 0 FE what worse hand does he need to have in his range for us to show a profit (or breakeven)?
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi DrDunne,

      Preflop: Considering that you are 140 BB deep here I think that we need to fold to a 4-bet unless we have reasons to believe that he 4-bets light or 4-bet/calls light (AQ).

      I have an exercise for you that should help you understand these spots better.

      Take a simple example like this:

      Villain 1 (BTN): 100 BB
      Hero(BB): 100 BB

      BTN vs BB:

      Villain opens 3 BB. Hero 3-bets 10 BB. Villain 4-bets to 25 BB. Hero ?

      If we shove, assuming 0 FE and a calling range of QQ+, AK what is our expected value (it can be as simple as -, breakeven, +)

      What's the minimum FE required?

      If 0 FE what worse hand does he need to have in his range for us to show a profit (or breakeven)?
      i'm terrible at this stuff so get ready to :facepalm:

      pretty sure we need 50% equity to make this at least breakeven, and with our hand vs villain's continuing range we have ~40% equity. so does this mean villain has to fold 10% of the time to make this breakeven?

      also, with AQ in villain's range it brings our equity to just above breakeven at about 51%..
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      50% would imply that we are investing half the money which is not true.

      We already put in the pot 10 BB (including our blind) so what's left over is 90 BB.

      So you'd look at doing something like this: 90/200.5 = 44.9%

      You can use a formula to find out the FE required:

      A) Calculate how much money you make if you shove and win (when he calls): so it's (pot - investment) * equity
      B) Calculate how much money we lose if you shove and lose.
      C) Calculate the net worth C = A - B (it should be negative).
      D) Remove the minus sign and divide C by (C+pot we stand to win if villain folds to shove) and that's your fold equity required (you will get a 0.X number, multiply by 100 to get %).
    • painterman007
      painterman007
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2009 Posts: 82
      DrDunne... You don't have to read this post, as it may spoil the exercise for you :D

      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      D) Remove the minus sign and divide C by (C+pot we stand to win if villain folds to shove) and that's your fold equity required (you will get a 0.X number, multiply by 100 to get %).
      Is this including our own bet which will be uncalled?

      C gave me -14bb
      Meaning D would be
      14/(14+35) = 28,5 % (if not included and)
      14/(14+125) = 11,2 % (If included)
      28,5 % fold equity seems like quite alot

      Also, to your question in the case we would have 0 FE:
      AKo has 33 % equity vs what i consider a standard call for villain to your shove here (QQ+, AKs)
      Considering our investment of 90bb in a total 200bb pot, we could call this 45 % pot odds, requiring 45 % equity vs his range. Because we have no fold equity, this must all come from beatable cards in his range.
      I found his strongest possible range profitable to us would be JJ+, AJs+,AKo giving us 45,27 % equity, and thus to my understanding giving us the right odds. Is this true or is it completely rubbish?
      If we can find his calling range is wider than this, we can shove, sit back and enjoy our long-term profits?
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      50% would imply that we are investing half the money which is not true.

      We already put in the pot 10 BB (including our blind) so what's left over is 90 BB.

      So you'd look at doing something like this: 90/200.5 = 44.9%

      You can use a formula to find out the FE required:

      A) Calculate how much money you make if you shove and win (when he calls): so it's (pot - investment) * equity
      B) Calculate how much money we lose if you shove and lose.
      C) Calculate the net worth C = A - B (it should be negative).
      D) Remove the minus sign and divide C by (C+pot we stand to win if villain folds to shove) and that's your fold equity required (you will get a 0.X number, multiply by 100 to get %).
      A)(200.5 - 90)*0.39 = 43.1
      B)(200.5 - 90)*0.61 = 67.4
      C)43.1 - 67.4 = -24.3
      D)24.3 / (24.3 + 35.5)*100% = 40.6%

      it didn't take me this long to do this i swear :D . and now i've just seen painterman007 has got different conclusions to me. i'll post this anyway lol

      [edit] edited this once and changed the calculation a bit but it's still different to painterman007's :facepalm:
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hey painterman and DrDunne,

      First, the two of you are using different equities (33% vs 39%).

      Second, pot we stand to win if villain folds to shove is 35.5 (25 his 4bet, 10 that we already invested, and 0.5 from SB).

      A) it's 110.5 * 0.39 so 43.1
      B) it's actually 90 * 0.61 so 54.9

      So the FE is 11.8 / 11.8+35.5 = 24.9%

      Do you see where mistake is DrDunne?
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hey painterman and DrDunne,

      First, the two of you are using different equities (33% vs 39%).

      Second, pot we stand to win if villain folds to shove is 35.5 (25 his 4bet, 10 that we already invested, and 0.5 from SB).

      A) it's 110.5 * 0.39 so 43.1
      B) it's actually 90 * 0.61 so 54.9

      So the FE is 11.8 / 11.8+35.5 = 24.9%

      Do you see where mistake is DrDunne?
      ugh i suck at maths. thanks for breaking this down it really helped me out. mainly it showed me that i need to start working on this part of my game a lot!