[NL2-NL10] a3 19

  • 7 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hey Dracsharp,

      Preflop: 3-bet looks fine. Villain folds to quite a few 3-bets plus he seemed to have folded a lot to cbets so far.

      It appears that this was his first 4-bet in 22 hands so why are we spewing and shoving A3o?

      Did you calculate how much fold equity you need here?

      What exactly prompted us to thinking he can be bluffing really wide here?

      I personally believe this is a bit spewy.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      His any2 sb opening range makes me doubt his equity, sure his stat was not showing it but i rather believe that he 4bet bluff me after seeing me catching up on his sb opening range. If he is bluffing more than 60% the time this will show value.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      His any2 sb opening range makes me doubt his equity, sure his stat was not showing it but i rather believe that he 4bet bluff me after seeing me catching up on his sb opening range. If he is bluffing more than 60% the time this will show value.
      So we are back to making assumptions based on no information (in fact we have info that points the other way, that he is tighter). At least if we would of shoved a suited ace or pocket pair.

      Do you really think he can bluff here 6+ out of 10 hands? Just because it's BvB?

      These plays are marginal at best and while they set up dynamic you don't need this to beat the limit and move up. You want to focus your efforts on improving your postflop play, your preflop ranges, hand reading, player profiling, valuebetting, etc.

      Learning to 5bet jam garbage as a bluff is not one of the skills that will make you a fabulous poker player.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      I didn't do it because of ego if that is what you are saying, i honestly believe( posted this hand for a reason ) that this might be the spot where his stat points away but his action is hard to believe especially because of his stat he is a very tight 4better but manages to get the nuts after my 2. 3bet ?

      This guys open 100% against me but as stat points out he only 4bets kk+ ?

      If i were 3betting him for 5-10 times in a row then yes i would have folded since he either has the hand or might have adjusted to loose 4bet against me, but if he is adjusting i might first see his sb open tighten up.

      And if we talk about stats i find it highly unlikely he would go for loose value 4bet after my 2. 3b because if he does there would be evidence of it, granted there is no evidence either of his 4b bluffing habits, but there is some evidence of his 3b bluffing habits so he is clearly capable it and his w$sd shows he doesn't like to show up with 2. hand at the river.

      100% open with 1% 4b is just hard to believe that he has the goods.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      I didn't do it because of ego if that is what you are saying, i honestly believe( posted this hand for a reason ) that this might be the spot where his stat points away but his action is hard to believe especially because of his stat he is a very tight 4better but manages to get the nuts after my 2. 3bet ?

      This guys open 100% against me but as stat points out he only 4bets kk+ ?

      If i were 3betting him for 5-10 times in a row then yes i would have folded since he either has the hand or might have adjusted to loose 4bet against me, but if he is adjusting i might first see his sb open tighten up.

      And if we talk about stats i find it highly unlikely he would go for loose value 4bet after my 2. 3b because if he does there would be evidence of it, granted there is no evidence either of his 4b bluffing habits, but there is some evidence of his 3b bluffing habits so he is clearly capable it and his w$sd shows he doesn't like to show up with 2. hand at the river.

      100% open with 1% 4b is just hard to believe that he has the goods.
      What I get from this is that you don't really believe or know how random distribution works.

      Why can he not have a value hand after your 2nd 3-bet? We have a blocker, which is great but that's about it. We have 0 actual information that would point us to believing he can bluff here except a wild guess.

      IF you want to base a high variance play that has to work VERY often to even be breakeven on a guess then I don't really know what else to say.

      And I agree with you that he is most likely not opening his 4-bet range much beyond the standard AK, JJ+ type range.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      I am strong believer in asking questions until it's clear

      I totally get your point it could even happen on the first try regardless how unlikely it is, but from pure probability point of view of him hitting his value range after 2 tries is very low, but it could happen and if i ignored the facts then jokes on me.

      How much does other stats affect your decision ?

      3b
      Fold to 3b
      Steal Sb
      W$sd
      Low sample of 4b 22
      Low 4b 0/22

      Many of the times we use other stats as proxies to guess where 4b will normalize and to perceive the style of the villian. The wider value range we give him the less likely this move is of any value giving him ak,qq+ requires 4% bluff range to make it breakeven, with kk+ even a 1,5 % bluff range is profitable already.

      This is such a unique hand for me because i have never experienced a 4bet from a presumably tight 4bettor who also opens any2, same time he is an aggro 3bettor who also folds to a good amount of 3bet himself and likes to be good at the sd.

      If you feed me this intel i would bet he only 4bets nuts or close to nuts and bluffs too, especially in the blinds.

      The alternative is letting it go but what would you do if you again 3bet twice with axs then on the second one he 4bets again ?

      Even more improbable but possible that he has the goods again.

      22 samples of 4bet over 1k shows me that he didn't have a lot of chance to 4b, which he could have easily missed even he raises tt+,aq+ normally and possibly due to low chance of 4b we assume fishes were the reason so bluffing made no sense.

      He is actually sitting on 2 fish and the guys right to me left, so that how we ended up sbvbb.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      I appreciate the fact that you want to ask questions until it's clear and I support that.

      I also appreciate our in depth conversations. They are definitely great to have :)


      Re: I totally get your point it could even happen on the first try regardless how unlikely it is, but from pure probability point of view of him hitting his value range after 2 tries is very low, but it could happen and if i ignored the facts then jokes on me.

      Keep in mind that the chance for me to get AA this hand is the same as the chance to get AA on the next hand.

      Both hands are independent of each other which means that I can get AA as easily on the second hand as I would get it on the 5th.

      It's true that what you are doing here is looking at various stats and trying to guesstimate his range. The problem is that we actually have no facts that could tell us that he bluffs 50% here or not. Even if he bluffs some of the time we can't do much unless he bluffs a lot.

      So my opinion is still the same, we are guessing and making a very spewy/high variance play in a spot in which our investment has only been 9 BBs. So we are risking 90% of our stack on some (wild) speculations.

      What I am trying to get to is that, the spot you are finding yourself in is marginal at best even if he folds lets say 50%-60% of the time