[NL2-NL10] 99 top pair, against push deep

    • mlatasrb
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 23.7 BB
      SB: 176.7 BB
      BB: 148.9 BB
      UTG: 159.5 BB
      MP: 54.1 BB
      Hero (CO): 208.2 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9:club: 9:spade:

      UTG raises to 4 BB, fold, Hero calls 4 BB, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond: 6:diamond: 9:heart:
      UTG bets 10 BB, Hero raises to 30 BB, UTG raises to 155.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 125.5 BB

      Turn: (320.5 BB, 2 players) K:spade:

      River: (320.5 BB, 2 players) K:diamond:

      Hero shows 9:club: 9:spade: (Full House, Nines full of Kings) (Pre 79%, Flop 99%, Turn 100%)
      UTG mucks 6:club: 5:club: (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes) (Pre 21%, Flop 1%, Turn 0%)
      Hero wins 310.5 BB

      Can it be fold with top pair, considering we are so deep? We lose only against 87s.
      I have only 50 hands on him, and he raised cbet 2/2 times, which shows me he is aggresive, so I call without much thinking. But otherwise, if he is not aggresive, can it be a fold, if we are e.g 300bb deep?
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi mla,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Flop: We have top set here not top pair (maybe a typo in your writing).

      First, 2 raises out of two does not equal a sample and villain may have just gotten lucky with good cards/board textures.

      However with that being said he also opens UTG which severely limits his chances of have 78. At best he has 4 combos of 78s. And if he has those he also has 65s along with the usual 66 and 55 (6 set combos). Add in the fact that he can easily overplay overpairs and we are golden.

      With bottom set it would become closer (deeper).

      So there's no way I would raise/fold this even 200-300 BB deep unless villain is a complete nit.
    • mlatasrb
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      Yeah, 2/2 raises is not sample, but how likely it is that in 2 hands he had nuts and raise? I mean probability of hitting set is
      around 12% on flop (for straight or flush much smaller), and the probability of hitting in two hands set is 12% * 12% = 1.4%
      So I cant be 100% sure that he bluffed at least ones in those 2 hands, but I can be very sure he did, enough to call with top set.