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[NL2-NL10] JQo bu bluff river

    • mlatasrb
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,730
      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BTN): 163.4 BB
      SB: 76.1 BB
      BB: 173 BB
      UTG: 103.3 BB
      MP: 100 BB
      CO: 371.2 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:diamond: J:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB

      Flop: (4.5 BB, 2 players) 8:spade: 8:diamond: 2:diamond:
      BB bets 3.2 BB, Hero calls 3.2 BB

      Turn: (10.9 BB, 2 players) T:spade:
      BB bets 7.8 BB, Hero calls 7.8 BB

      River: (26.5 BB, 2 players) 6:club:
      BB bets 12.6 BB, Hero raises to 47.2 BB, fold

      Hero wins 49.2 BB

      I think when he donks on 882, he doesnt represent anything but bluff, overcards.
      I think he would with 8x just check call or raise.
      So I call and hope he checks so I can bet and he folds, or I hit so I can call. On river his small bet size tells me he doesnt have nuts, so I raise bluff.
      Is it too large?

      The reason for my bluff also is that I noticed that my raise on all streets is quite low, 2% on flop. in 2.1 k hands.
      Basically I just raise with made hands, never with one pair, or bluff. So I think that if
      somebody has statistics of me, he can perfectly adobt, and always fold to my raise.
      Maybe in NL10 is not important, but I played also NL20 (where I lost so have to play NL10 again) and they were folding almost always when I raise with set, and I think it is because of my stats.

      So I wanted to ask how much should I raise on each streets, to make my play unpredictable?
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi mla,

      Preflop: looks fine.

      Do we not have information on any of these players (for all the hands that you post)? Poker is a game of limited information so the more information we have the better decision we can make.

      First off I wouldn't worry about how much you raise at these limits. Even if people have stats on you they won't adjust properly. For example even if your raise was 8% they won't start calling too light all of a sudden (if they were nitty).

      I would worry about making the correct plays given the information you have (always bluff with equity, either FE, hand equity or both).

      As played, if we want to bluff raise why not raise the turn where we have some equity still?

      The river raise is a bit too big. You are essentially risking 47 BB to win only 39 BB. So it needs to work 55% of the time. I also think that even a 35-37 BB raise would get him to fold a missed draw or a weak pair hand. Thus we save money when he has a hand.
    • mlatasrb
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,730
      I didnt write any stats about villian, because I have only 15 hands on him.
      The hands where I didnt write my reads or stats, means I dont have it.
      In future, I will always write that I dont have info or stats on villian, or write if I have.