Hey guys, I haven't really posted much on here but I'm a student of pleno's and play a bit of 200-400. I have what I think is a pretty interesting spot where I'm kind of going in circles and struggling with a lot. The particular hand that made me think about this comes from Internet's video.

Btn 2x, sb folds, hero bb calls with 95dd, flop comes 689 rainbow (pot 4.5bb), hero x/c.
turn Q (pot 10.5bb *assuming villain bets 3bb*), hero x, villain c-bets 7bb again.

I'm really struggling to figure out how to play this spot. I mean realistically I never have 95dd here in my range so let's pretend I have T9dd because I don't defend that wide because I'm not as skilled. So my first thought is to c/r here because we have a TJ blocker and I'm not really sure what my plan is on the river but I usually just sigh wtf bet and get snap called by QT/QJ cus he thinks I'm turning like A9/97 type stuff into a bluff.

I'm really terrible at math but here's my attempt at breaking it down into ranges and how often we need to win to make it profitable.
villain's range on the turn, not sure how correct I am but I assume it's pretty strong for most people. (68o, 69o, 89o, Q6o, q8o, 68s,69s,89s, q6s, q9s, 66, 88, 99, TJo, TJs, 67o, 87o,97o, T9o,T9s, QTo,QTs,QJo, KTo, KTs)
I'm not really sure if most people bet turn with k9, A9, or have stuff like a6,k6 in their range, for the longest time I personally used to just triple barrel this spot with a6, k6 if people x/c and the board didn't make a straight possible but I'm guessing that's not very good and my betting frequencies would be way too high if I did that.

So if villain cbets 7bb on the turn, I think theory wise our raise should be bigger in a spot where our c/r range is so small so maybe 4x and to prevent people from calling with stuff like 97 and so on. So we are risking 28bb to win 11.5bb so if I'm doing this right 11.5/28 we have to win this 41% of the time. Now as I'm writing this I think we should only bet river here if it comes 7, T, J, 5 to have a correct river betting frequency. (I'm not sure if this is is correct but I think turning two pairs into a bluff here is correct to fold out sets and it doesn't matter how we win vs one pair hands and I also don't want to give him a chance to turn worse 2 pairs into a bluff and own me but I'm not sure if this thought process is bad)

So I guess my question is how do I figure out if we do win 41% of the time and then how do I incorporate the river into my math. I think there is a way to figure out how many times 5, 7, T, J comes on the river in terms of % and if my assumption is correct that he folds sets.

So few questions because I think my thought process really struggles here.
What kind of a range do you give someone for two barreling here? I'm not sure if I gave villain too many hands ie 68o, 69o and so on. I personally would be opening them from btn but I don't know if most people are or not.
How do we construct our two barreling range here if we are the villain and what should our range be to continue if someone makes a c/r/ what if their sizing is smaller than I said say 3x for example.
I'm guessing the reason people have seen me turn A9/K9 into a bluff here before so that's why they snap call me with QT/QJ, so I think that means A9/K9 is a x/f here.

Also patrick and I have talked quite a bit about overbetting turns so I guess this is more aimed at him than anyone else. if you were to overbet turn here that means you would have two cbet sizes here and two different ranges, imo this is not a spot we would want to have two ranges here but I have been overbetting here with J5ss for example and getting a lot of folds so then I decided to balance that with overbetting TJ and sets but I think I'm losing value, thoughts? Also if you don't want to post here about this as it may expose your game too much feel free to pm me.

Would really love to hear Internet's thougts here but once again if you don't want to post on the Internet forums (cwidt :p) about your game plan here I would love to talk about it in pm.

Oh and this might be my first ahhhhh moment in a while because usually I just 16 table and just click buttons like a retard and never break down spots like this so ty for making me think.

Thoughts are welcome from anyone and hopefully we can all learn quite a bit here.