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[NL2-NL10] A4s flush river bet size?

    • mlatasrb
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,722
      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 131.3 BB
      SB: 31.1 BB
      BB: 124.5 BB
      UTG: 109 BB
      Hero (MP): 398.9 BB
      CO: 113.2 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4:club: A:club:

      fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 9:club: 3:spade: Q:club:
      Hero bets 5.4 BB, CO calls 5.4 BB

      Turn: (18.3 BB, 2 players) 7:spade:
      Hero bets 11 BB, CO calls 11 BB

      River: (40.3 BB, 2 players) T:club:
      Hero bets 26 BB, CO calls 26 BB

      Hero shows 4:club: A:club: (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 33%, Flop 46%, Turn 27%)
      CO mucks J:spade: J:heart: (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 67%, Flop 54%, Turn 73%)
      Hero wins 87.7 BB

      Villian has 186 hands, VP22, PFR8, call cbet flop 6/9, turn 3/4.

      Should I barrel turn? I think he calls given his stats, but if I check he probably bets bigger than i did, and when I bet he might fold, is it ok?

      I think I have to barrel, I cant expect him to bet/call (maybe set or weaker flush).
      But how much to bet?
  • 2 replies
    • Saren113
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,973
      Do you have stats on his WSD% and his W$SD number? If they are high I would bet big with all my value hands. If he got a pretty low WTS % i tend to bet something in your region!
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      @Saren: WTSD over 180 hands would not be accurate enough. We want ~500 hands for those stats unless villain played a ton of hands (VPIP 50%+)

      Hi Mlatasrb,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: As played I prefer to bet the turn there as we may have some FE vs 9x/TT/JJ and we still have decent equity in the hand.

      On the river I'd bet larger because villain's range for calling there can call a bigger amount (Jx, worse FDs, some AQ type hands).