[NL2-NL10] [Nl2 Sh] AK missed in a multi-way pot

    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $2.58 (129 bb)
      SB: $1.87 (93.5 bb)
      BB: $2.41 (120.5 bb)
      UTG: $5.13 (256.5 bb)
      MP: $2.77 (138.5 bb)
      CO: $2.12 (106 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with K A
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.06, Hero raises to $0.18, SB calls $0.17, BB calls $0.16, CO calls $0.12

      Flop: ($0.72) T 4 7 (4 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $0.48

      Seems like an expensive cbet into too many opponents. We should never bluff into 3 opponents, right? Even with AK.
  • 11 replies
    • dErlUxEr
      dErlUxEr
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2011 Posts: 145
      Originally posted by Th334

      Seems like an expensive cbet into too many opponents. We should never bluff into 3 opponents, right? Even with AK.
      Thats right, it is not a good idear to cbet against 3 opponents. There could be a straight draw, a set, over pairs or a pair out there. You never know. The pot is already quiet big, so a cbet is very expensive and you have got nothing. If you get called, then you dont know where you are.. and most of the time you are beaten.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi German,

      Preflop: looks fine. Interesting that we got cold called by 2 more players.

      At this point I'd play rather passive postflop.

      Postflop: It's not that we cbet bluff into 3 opponents but rather that we do this in a 3bet pot where we got cold called by 2 of them. So their range is on the strong side unless they are super fishy.

      So unless you plan to follow up with a turn shove I wouldn't cbet the flop (and I wouldn't fire the turn with no info here).
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi German,

      Preflop: looks fine. Interesting that we got cold called by 2 more players.

      At this point I'd play rather passive postflop.

      Postflop: It's not that we cbet bluff into 3 opponents but rather that we do this in a 3bet pot where we got cold called by 2 of them. So their range is on the strong side unless they are super fishy.

      So unless you plan to follow up with a turn shove I wouldn't cbet the flop (and I wouldn't fire the turn with no info here).
      Hi Bogdan,

      Hm, do you mean that this crowd of cold callers might have hit such a flop very well? There must be the whole lot of SD, sets, and maybe even JJ.

      If there was a queen instead of a ten, we could try to cbet, but it would be close as well?

      Thanks.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      The easiest exercise you can do here is go to equilab, add our hand, add the board and add 3 ranges for these guys.

      You can be somewhat wide if you want.

      Hit evaluate and then not only look at our equity but also the distribution of hands for each of them.

      The problem we have with 3 guys postflop is that the pot is already larger and the flop is dry that a lot of pairs (big part of their calling range) won't go away with just one bet (or at all).
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      The easiest exercise you can do here is go to equilab, add our hand, add the board and add 3 ranges for these guys.

      You can be somewhat wide if you want.

      Hit evaluate and then not only look at our equity but also the distribution of hands for each of them.

      The problem we have with 3 guys postflop is that the pot is already larger and the flop is dry that a lot of pairs (big part of their calling range) won't go away with just one bet (or at all).
      I got only 16% equity myself (less than everyone) :) I estimated that the CO will want to stay in the hand in a bout 35% cases, and the blinds in about 29% cases. So basically the possibility that everyone folds is 0.65*0.71*0.71=33%. We don't have profit even if we bet 1/2 pot here :)

      Of course it's very rough, since I made just some ranges that seem reasonable for me, not necessarily for them.

      Is it what you were talking about?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Th334
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      The easiest exercise you can do here is go to equilab, add our hand, add the board and add 3 ranges for these guys.

      You can be somewhat wide if you want.

      Hit evaluate and then not only look at our equity but also the distribution of hands for each of them.

      The problem we have with 3 guys postflop is that the pot is already larger and the flop is dry that a lot of pairs (big part of their calling range) won't go away with just one bet (or at all).
      I got only 16% equity myself (less than everyone) :) I estimated that the CO will want to stay in the hand in a bout 35% cases, and the blinds in about 29% cases. So basically the possibility that everyone folds is 0.65*0.71*0.71=33%. We don't have profit even if we bet 1/2 pot here :)

      Of course it's very rough, since I made just some ranges that seem reasonable for me, not necessarily for them.

      Is it what you were talking about?
      Yes, that's a start.

      In equilab you can look and see how a range hits a board (after you hit evaluate a wheel looking button activates next to someones range - click on that).
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Yes, that's a start.

      In equilab you can look and see how a range hits a board (after you hit evaluate a wheel looking button activates next to someones range - click on that).
      Eemm, I thought it's the end :)

      What I did is I entered all the data, looked at each opponent's "wheel button", ticked the hands that I assume they won't fold on the flop (like TP+ and strong draws), and that's how I got 35% and 29%.

      If he hits in 35% cases, than obviously he misses in 65% cases, and we assume he folds when missed. Finally, I just multiplied all three possibilities that each opponent will miss (65% x 71% x 71%) and got my 33% FE, which lead me to the conclusion of not very profitable c-bet.

      Is it still a start, or it's pretty much what was needed to be done? =)
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Th334
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Yes, that's a start.

      In equilab you can look and see how a range hits a board (after you hit evaluate a wheel looking button activates next to someones range - click on that).
      Eemm, I thought it's the end :)

      What I did is I entered all the data, looked at each opponent's "wheel button", ticked the hands that I assume they won't fold on the flop (like TP+ and strong draws), and that's how I got 35% and 29%.

      If he hits in 35% cases, than obviously he misses in 65% cases, and we assume he folds when missed. Finally, I just multiplied all three possibilities that each opponent will miss (65% x 71% x 71%) and got my 33% FE, which lead me to the conclusion of not very profitable c-bet.

      Is it still a start, or it's pretty much what was needed to be done? =)
      Hi German,

      That's definitely a good chunk of it.

      I was looking to see what ranges you gave them for not folding (those 35% and 29%). I'm looking more at hand groupings rather than specific hands :)
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Originally posted by Th334
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Yes, that's a start.

      In equilab you can look and see how a range hits a board (after you hit evaluate a wheel looking button activates next to someones range - click on that).
      Eemm, I thought it's the end :)

      What I did is I entered all the data, looked at each opponent's "wheel button", ticked the hands that I assume they won't fold on the flop (like TP+ and strong draws), and that's how I got 35% and 29%.

      If he hits in 35% cases, than obviously he misses in 65% cases, and we assume he folds when missed. Finally, I just multiplied all three possibilities that each opponent will miss (65% x 71% x 71%) and got my 33% FE, which lead me to the conclusion of not very profitable c-bet.

      Is it still a start, or it's pretty much what was needed to be done? =)
      Hi German,

      That's definitely a good chunk of it.

      I was looking to see what ranges you gave them for not folding (those 35% and 29%). I'm looking more at hand groupings rather than specific hands :)
      Hi Bogdan,

      "TP+ and strong draws", isn't it what you are asking? =)

      Or you want me to write the range itself? Like T9, JT etc.

      Why is it important for us? Or you just don't like the value I got and want to check where the mistake is?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Th334
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Originally posted by Th334
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Yes, that's a start.

      In equilab you can look and see how a range hits a board (after you hit evaluate a wheel looking button activates next to someones range - click on that).
      Eemm, I thought it's the end :)

      What I did is I entered all the data, looked at each opponent's "wheel button", ticked the hands that I assume they won't fold on the flop (like TP+ and strong draws), and that's how I got 35% and 29%.

      If he hits in 35% cases, than obviously he misses in 65% cases, and we assume he folds when missed. Finally, I just multiplied all three possibilities that each opponent will miss (65% x 71% x 71%) and got my 33% FE, which lead me to the conclusion of not very profitable c-bet.

      Is it still a start, or it's pretty much what was needed to be done? =)
      Hi German,

      That's definitely a good chunk of it.

      I was looking to see what ranges you gave them for not folding (those 35% and 29%). I'm looking more at hand groupings rather than specific hands :)
      Hi Bogdan,

      "TP+ and strong draws", isn't it what you are asking? =)

      Or you want me to write the range itself? Like T9, JT etc.

      Why is it important for us? Or you just don't like the value I got and want to check where the mistake is?
      Yeh I wanted to see exactly what hands you put in his range to double check :)

      That's all but it's not super important if you think you got it right.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Hi again,

      Bogdan, I have a really important question for you, and I can't sleep at night because of it :) It's just about the topic we discussed here, but it's from one of the articles. I thought that you are pretty much the only person that could clarify it to me, and this will be the thread that you are likely to see the fastest :f_biggrin:

      Instead of guessing what I don't understand, I'll just give you a quote. It's huge, I know, I'm sorry. I highlighted two numbers that I cannot understand. (link here, or see the quote below)
      [SPOILER][B]100BB Stacks

      Preflop[/b]:

      6 folds, CO raises 4BB, BU calls 4BB, 2 folds

      Flop: 3 :spade: , 9 :club: , T :diamond: (Pot 9.5BB)

      CO bets 6BB

      An obvious continuation bet. Most players will make this bet. The question is, whether it's exploitable or not. The answer is: it depends. Very often it is exploitable. A small calculation to illustrate the point: assume CO is more or less tight-aggressive and doesn't know the Button. His preflop range is likely to be something like this:
      22+,A6s+,KTs+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o

      This is roughly 25% of all hands and 334 hand combinations. Against a raise from BU, CO is likely to play top pair+ and strong straight draws (T9 – AT, JJ+, 33, 99, TT, QJ). That leaves us with 4*6 (pairs) + 4*12 (top pairs) + 6 (2 pairs) + 9 (sets) +16 (draws), which equals 103 possible combinations.

      Now we need to determine the continuation betting range of the CO. For the given range that CO will stay in the hand with, this is the factor to determine whether or not you can exploit the continuation bet.

      Assume BU raises 18BB. He is investing 18BB to win 15.5BB. According to the EV formula, he needs a fold roughly 54% of the time to make the bluff profitable. CO will continue to play with 103/334 = 30% of his preflop range.

      If he bets more than 68% of his range, BU can make a 100% profitable raise regardless of what hand he has. It should be noted that the range that CO will continue to play against a raise is quite loose. Frequently this range will be tighter.

      The range that CO raises preflop is quite tight and will frequently be looser. If CO were to open raise 30% and on the flop not to play all combinations of QJ and only continue with TPTK+, the result would be the following:
      CO plays about 400 combinations preflop. Against a raise he might play 12x AT, 6x T9, 8x QJ, 9x sets, 4x6 overpairs = 59 combinations which equals 59/400 = 15% of his range. This would result in a continuation betting frequency of only 33%. In the first example, his range isn't as strong. Some opponents might bet 100% and become exploitable. However, in the second example it's much more obvious.

      The situation isn't perfect but a frequency of 75%+ is no exception despite anything over 33% being immediately exploitable.[/SPOILER]

      What I DO understand:

      First example:
      • CO's preflop range is 25%
      • he will continue after a raise with 30% of his initial range
      • BU needs to make CO fold in 54% of the cases for his raise to be profitable (raise-sizing dependent value)

      Second example:
      • CO's preflop range is 30%
      • he will continue with 15%


      It's all good, just what you told me. In the first case he will continue with 30% hands, thus our FE is 70%. In second example he will continue with 15% hands, thus our FE is 85%.

      What I don't understand is the value of 68%+ for the first example, and the value of 33%+ for the second example. Apparently, it is the minimum value of CO's c-bet stat needed for BU's raise to be profitable. How this value was calculated, and how do we use it?

      Finally, what this 75% value at the very end is all about?

      Thanks so much. I wasted like the whole day reading this bit over and over again. I tried to do any possible mathematical action with these numbers. I already know it by heart....still I can't get these 68% and 33% :f_cry:

      PS: in the first sentence that I made bold, originally it was said that CO has a 100% profitable raise, not BU. I thought that it's a typo and corrected it.