[NL20-NL50] sh nl 25 kqs

    • gao20005
      Joined: 29.10.2008 Posts: 3,134
      villain:21/18/2.7/342(vpip/pfr/af/hands) 3bet: 7%

      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2040896
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $24.58
      UTG: $11.02
      MP: $26.92
      Hero (CO): $27.56
      BTN: $32.62
      SB: $26.85

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with K :heart: q :heart:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, SB raises to $2.70, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.95

      Flop: ($5.65) j :club: j :diamond: k :spade: (2 players)
      SB check , Hero check

      Turn: ($5.65) k :club: (2 players)color=red]SB check,
      Hero bet $4
      ,sb call $4

      River: ($13.65) a :diamond: (2 players)
      sb check,Hero bet $7.55,SB raises to $19.70,Hero?

      cards:: JdKsJcKcAd
      win lost
      MP2 75.00% 70.00% 5.00% { AA, JJ, AKs, AJs, KQs, AKo }
      MP3 25.00% 20.00% 5.00% { KhQh }
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Gao,

      Preflop: What do we know about villain? Calling is not a terrible option but I'd prefer to know something about him so we can make our postflop life easier.

      Alternatively we can 4-bet bluff there.

      Postflop: As played we can expect villain not to bluff that river. So it's only a question of his value range. Do we beat any of it? In fact do we beat ~23% of it (more like 25%+ after rake is calculated).
      So to show a tiny profit we need him to raise worse 3/10 times.

      I'd say that his range can actually have a lot more Kx hands. I'd say he rarely has AK after checking flop and most likely has a hand like a weak Kx (KQ/KT/K9 etc) or KJ/JJ/AA.

      Since in the best case scenario we call for a split I'd fold here.