Is it -EV to take wins smaller than your stop loss

    • yvrchris
      yvrchris
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.06.2011 Posts: 4
      Let's say everyday I buy into one table for 100bbs. I always quit when I'm up at least 25 bbs, or when I bust my stack (I never rebuy for any amount).

      Mathematically speaking (and assuming I'm break even in the game otherwise), would this approach have neutral expectation?
  • 9 replies
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      It wouldn't necessarily be explicitly -EV as in losing you money in the long run.

      However, a lot of EV would be lost in that you might be at a great table with a couple of whales and leave after winning just 25bbs? Yeah right, stay and stack them as many times as they will reload.

      Basically, if you believe a situation to be profitable, stay. If not, leave. It's that simple.

      I personally do not believe in winners stop loss, unless you have some sort of psychological thing where you call way lighter with 200bb or so, cos you're already up money.
    • yvrchris
      yvrchris
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.06.2011 Posts: 4
      Thanks for the reply.

      Yeah, I agree with what you're saying. I'm just more curious as a hypothetical, if there's something hidden in the math that I don't see.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,330
      • 22.12.2012, 12:58
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by w34z3l: 22.12.2012 12:59.
      If your edge is neutral, your EV is neutral.

      The only way a buyin strategy can effect your EV is if it effects your edge. (Maybe you play more/less efficiently at different stack sizes).

      Different buyin strategies may affect the type of variance you experience however, just not your overall EV.
    • lnternet
      lnternet
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      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      A stop time can't change the EV, no.


      However, if your EV is zero playing continuously, you EV starting and stopping more or less randomly will cost you money as you will play a BB more than 1/6 of your hands.
    • Tarhonya
      Tarhonya
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      Joined: 18.07.2010 Posts: 694
      Stop loss and "stop win" limits should only be used temporarily until you manage not to start to play differently when you win or lose some money.
      You need to detach yourself from the money if that makes sense.

      That said, even though there is positive tilt, where you could play differently (worse) if you're winning some money, I think a "stop win" limit is generally a bad idea and not just because you're leaving the fish behind, because you can find fishes the next day and you can use your notes you took, etc, but you're leaving behind the flow of the table (e.g. someone might be on a temporarily tilt) and your current image which you can't use the next day.

      Even if the importance of table flow is debatable, leaving tables behind when you're winning must be -EV imo - as long as you're not spewing.
    • nefarious26
      nefarious26
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      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 413
      Fuck stop loss, play to the death and take it like a degen
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,363
      Originally posted by yvrchris
      Let's say everyday I buy into one table for 100bbs. I always quit when I'm up at least 25 bbs, or when I bust my stack (I never rebuy for any amount).

      Mathematically speaking (and assuming I'm break even in the game otherwise), would this approach have neutral expectation?
      There is a silver-level article in the strategy section entitled:
      "How to play deep stacked".
      Look for it when you get to silver.

      By exiting early, you miss some great opportunities.
      When you are deep stacked, you have greater implied odds against other deep stacks.

      I'm assuming you're playing No-Limit?

      I'll move this thread to the No Limit Strategy section, since it may elicit more responses there.

      I typically play a set number of hands per session, regardless of wins or losses.

      Rather, I close unprofitable tables (in other words, ones where I can't steal blinds :D ), and open new ones.

      Like the other guy said, if there are exploitable players at your table, stay and exploit 'em.

      Personally I find that I prefer exploiting nits, since they are WAY more predictable than maniacs
    • elchipriota
      elchipriota
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      Originally posted by Tarhonya
      Stop loss and "stop win" limits should only be used temporarily until you manage not to start to play differently when you win or lose some money.
      You need to detach yourself from the money if that makes sense.

      That said, even though there is positive tilt, where you could play differently (worse) if you're winning some money, I think a "stop win" limit is generally a bad idea and not just because you're leaving the fish behind, because you can find fishes the next day and you can use your notes you took, etc, but you're leaving behind the flow of the table (e.g. someone might be on a temporarily tilt) and your current image which you can't use the next day.

      Even if the importance of table flow is debatable, leaving tables behind when you're winning must be -EV imo - as long as you're not spewing.
      +1 Also, the bigger the stack the bigger the pressure you can put on other regs.

      Also the bigger the stack you have the greater the implied odds you get against other big stacks since if you flop a monster you get more out of the situation.


      Nick
    • kartsah
      kartsah
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.10.2010 Posts: 22
      Assuming your a winning player with very few leaks, then the bigger your stack is, the more +ev it will be, "ALWAYS".

      I understand that if your a new player or not 100% confident about your gameplay that you want to leave the table early, but if that is the case then even better is that I would recommend you to play shortstacked.

      I play on stars zoom 25nl and I never leave the table. I sometimes make my stack with a max of 25$ buyin into 200$, and I keep playing. It is also a mindphuck for the other regs and deep stacks, because they will ALMOST never play against you, especially oop, not even 3-bet bluff you, because they are too afraid of you.

      And they should be, since your so deep vs a deep stack, you can almost always call with suited hands profitably in position.