[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH 99 bet on river?

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($20.09)
      BB ($38.75)
      UTG ($27.70)
      CO ($50.27)
      BTN ($14.17)

      Dealt to Hero 9:spade: 9:diamond:

      UTG raises to $0.60, fold, BTN calls $0.60, Hero calls $0.50, fold

      FLOP ($2) 2:diamond: 3:club: 5:heart:

      Hero bets $1.30, UTG calls $1.30, BTN folds

      TURN ($4.60) 2:diamond: 3:club: 5:heart: T:heart:

      Hero checks, UTG checks

      RIVER ($4.60) 2:diamond: 3:club: 5:heart: T:heart: 3:spade:

      Hero bets $2.30, UTG raises to $6.80, Hero folds

      UTG wins $8.74

      UTG:


      BTN:
      56/16/2.7, wtsd 17, w$sd 53, 509 hands

      Is it worth to bet river? I was thinking mid PPs could call river.
  • 4 replies
    • serverm07
      serverm07
      Basic
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      If you are going to lead this flop, definitely bet turn to get value from Ax and all pairs he is calling with. As played just bet/fold I guess but I would be tempted to call
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      get value from Ax


      why do you think he will call flop and turn with overcards?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      hi.

      the flop lead is not a very good play. i would just c-f if UTG bets out.

      When utg cbets flop he usually has AX or overpairs or sets. Against such a range of hands your equity is really poor. Remember that he only has a 10% opening range so his range is someting like 88+ and AQ+.

      i would lead turn if it gets checked around or maybe c-c flop vs BU if he bets cos BU´s range is far wider.

      why don´t you calculate your equity with 99 vs a tight 10% range?
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Remember that he only has a 10% opening range so his range is someting like 88+ and AQ+.


      I put 10% in equilab and I get wider:

      77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo

      So I think leading flop is ok, because we can get calls from worse hands from fish while board is not scary. Just need to be carefull if UTG continues, because when he continues, then he might have strong range.