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[NL2-NL10] NL 5 ZOOM 2 pair vs Set

    • elchipriota
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      I am 3betting light there since the villain is a reg which is 3betting a ridiculous 24% of his btn. My value in the raise there comes from the fact that he will fold to a 72% of my 4bets.

      He doesnt fold this time but I flop two pair. I know his range there is very draw heavy with many 9-Js, KQs, KJs, low Ax suited, and AK,AQ,AJ.

      He also goes to showdown 40% and folds to Cbet a bit less than 50%. He will therefore pay me off at least two streets of value.

      That is my process thinking of why I bet large both flop and turn thinking I can get a lot of value from his draw and Aces.

      What do you think guys?

      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $10.14 (202.8 bb)
      SB: $15.89 (317.8 bb)
      BB: $9.66 (193.2 bb)
      UTG: $5.07 (101.4 bb)
      MP: $3.15 (63 bb)
      Hero (CO): $15.02 (300.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with T 8
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN raises to $0.52, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.68, BTN calls $1.16

      Flop: ($3.43) A 8 T (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3

      Turn: ($9.43) 2 (2 players)
      Hero bets $10.34 and is all-in, BTN calls $5.46 and is all-in

      River: ($20.35) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

      $20.35 pot ($0.84 rake)
      Final Board: A 8 T 2 2
      BTN showed 8 8 and won $19.51 ($9.37 net)
      Hero showed T 8 and lost (-$10.14 net)
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Elchipriota,

      Preflop: I'm assuming you mean you are 4-betting here.

      Over what sample is this 24% BTN 3-bet? We need a large sample for that number to be accurate.

      Second, we are deep here so our 4-bet bluff, since it's bigger, has to work very often to show a profit. How do we see him folding 72% of 3-bet hands?

      That would mean, that out of a 24% 3-bet range he would only continue with 5.76 %

      A 5.76% range can look like this: 66+,AQs+,AKo

      Where are KQ, KJ, low suited Ax coming in the picture there?

      If that's what you think he calls with then he doesn't fold to 72% of your 4-bets (or he has a much wider 3-bet range).

      Furthermore if you expect him to call you with that many broadways why are we even 4-betting as a bluff? We should simply 4-bet for pure value (with a wider range).

      And then villain is stationy (based on your reads) so we can't even bluff him much postflop.