[NL2-NL10] [Nl2 Sh] AJo squeeze

    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $2 (100 bb)
      UTG: $1.51 (75.5 bb)
      MP: $1.90 (95 bb)
      CO: $2.68 (134 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $5.45 (272.5 bb)
      SB: $1.87 (93.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with J A
      UTG folds, MP raises to $0.06, CO calls $0.06, Hero raises to $0.24, 2 folds, MP calls $0.18, CO folds

      Flop: ($0.57) 4 4 7 (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $0.30, MP calls $0.30

      Turn: ($1.17) J (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $0.64, MP raises to $1.28, Hero folds

      The villains is:

      VPIP: 32 / PFR: 07 / cold-call: 22 / agg%: 31 / WTS: 24 / hands: 95

      How good is squeezing, when with his PFR he's not that likely to fold?

      How good is my aggressive line postflop?

      How good is my fold? I just can't see KJ on that turn.

      The only thing I'm sure about is that I should have used smaller bet-sizing.
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi German,

      Preflop: I hope we are raising for thin value preflop? However it sounds you were trying to turn an ok hand into a bluff versus a fish?

      Postflop: As played I don't mind bet/folding however I'd check that flop back. Does anything worse call (or enough) or anything better fold?
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Preflop: I didn't think he can raise with worse (he just limps with it), so I was basically more bluffing than raising for pure value. Or in this case, I should have just called behind, to prevent turning my hand into a bluff?

      Postflop: worse doesn't call because there are not many worse hands. Better doesn't fold. But if worse folds, I prevent it from improving and bluffing me on the turn.

      Can a cbet on a dry board HU ever be -EV? (against a player who's familiar with fold button of course)

      If we check behind, we have to fold to his turn donk with no improvement, and he will bluff here quite often.

      Also, it now occurred to me, what is he raising the turn with? An overpair would bet the flop most of the time. A 4x is impossible given his PFR stat. 2P is not likely either. The only thing is JJ, but that's about it. Maybe we could continue explaining his raise by the fact he's a fish?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Why would we even try to 3-bet bluff a fish? Isn't that against our main plan which is to always valuebet vs weaker opponents?

      Postflop he is not repping much he can still have some random A4 hands, 77, 44, JJ, possibly even slow played QQ+.