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[NL20-NL50] K4s 2 pairs, river shove?

    • AchillesBG
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,586
      Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $49.84 (249.2 bb)
      BTN: $23.78 (118.9 bb)
      SB: $21.15 (105.7 bb)
      Hero (BB): $37.13 (185.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K:club: 4:club:
      CO folds, BTN raises to $0.40, SB folds, Hero calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.90) K:diamond: 5:spade: 4:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.90, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $2.10

      Turn: ($6.90) Q:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

      River: ($16.90) 2:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $28.73 and is all-in

      64/21 67 hands Doesn`t like to fold. Passive postflop.

      Preflop i have playable hand, good prize and big fish to play with. => call

      The flop is nice, so i raise for value. I expect him to call any Kx,AA,any draw and maybe some middle pairs as well.

      The turn is not the greatest but i think i can still get value from a lot of worse hands.

      The river is blank, so i decided to shove for value, expecting a call from KT/KJ/AK/AA/54s

      MP2 68.09% 65.96% 2.13% Kc4c
      MP3 31.91% 29.79% 2.13% QQ+, 55, AKs, KTs+, K5s-K4s, 54s, AKo, KTo+

      + a lot of FE from draws and weaker Kx.

      Even vs. stronger range, i can still ship it.

      MP2 51.61% 48.39% 3.23% Kc4c
      MP3 48.39% 45.16% 3.23% QQ+, 55, AKs, KQs, K5s-K4s, 54s, AKo, KQo
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Yeah, I agree with your analisys.. Keeping in mind it's Blind vs BU you get less respect so his calling range will be wider. I wouldn't be too surprised to see AQdd or AQss call here.

      I think you have to include A3 and 63, at least some combos imo.. but I believe it's still a value shove.

      LE: You can also discount some 54s, 44, 55, KK imo because they stack of on flop.. not all but at least 1/4 of them IMO.