[NL20-NL50] Nl20 Sh Aa

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,066
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($12.60)
      BB ($17.84)
      UTG ($7.90)
      UTG+1 ($20.89)
      Hero ($27.50)
      BTN ($20)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: A:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, Hero raises to $0.80, fold, fold, BB calls $0.60, UTG+1 calls $0.60

      FLOP ($2.50) Q:heart: 7:diamond: 7:spade:

      BB bets $1.20, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $1.20

      TURN ($4.90) Q:heart: 7:diamond: 7:spade: 5:heart:

      BB bets $2.40, Hero calls $2.40

      RIVER ($9.70) Q:heart: 7:diamond: 7:spade: 5:heart: 3:spade:

      BB bets $2.40, Hero raises to $23.10 (AI), BB calls $11.04 (AI)

      UTG+1 59/14/1.4 76 hands

      BB: 35/2/1.9 85 hands

      On flop I call because board is dry and let him bluff.

      Proably on turn I need to raise, to get value from draws. But if I raise turn - and he shoves, I have to fold, right? Because its multiway so it might be strong, also he is not so agro.

      I raise river to get value from Qx
  • 6 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Flop:

      What bluffs does he have in his range on the flop? How often would they barrel?

      What value hands does he have in his range on the flop? How often would they barrel? How often would they shut down? (On what cards).


      Turn:

      What bluffs does he have in his range and how often would he barrel river?

      What value hands does he have in his range and how often would they barrel river? How often would they shut down and on what cards?

      River:

      What are the bluffs in his range?

      What are the value hands you beat that call a raise?


      Another thing to mention: You say he is not aggressive and bets 3 times into you. How weak is that range then if he is not aggressive?

      For me this is a value raise on the flop and take it from there. I don't like calling such a small bet, I want to get stacks into the pot on many runouts and I can't do that with his sizing.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,066
      What bluffs does he have in his range on the flop? How often would they barrel?


      Not exaclyt sure, but hands like JT maybe. Maybe its not that many bluffs but vs Qx I can get value anyway later, so I let him place even some rare bluffs. He could barrel when he hits the draw. If he does not barrel, I can bet the turn, I am IP.

      Value hands should be Qx with kicker about at least 8. He should barrelt those on many turns except K and A turns. If the turn is dry, he could c/c top pair.

      What bluffs does he have in his range and how often would he barrel river? What value hands does he have in his range and how often would they barrel river? How often would they shut down and on what cards?


      hands like JTs if he did that on flop. AKs. 68.
      Value hands like on flop - top pairs. And shut down on most rivers, unless it is AQ or he hits something better.

      River: What are the bluffs in his range? What are the value hands you beat that call a raise?


      No bluffs, unles missed draws, but rarely he would 3barrel blluff. AQ, but with this sizing could be hands like Q9 as blockbet.

      Another thing to mention: You say he is not aggressive and bets 3 times into you. How weak is that range then if he is not aggressive?


      Weak TP like Q9
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      How many of the hands you put in his range 3bet preflop?

      If he has weak Qx you can only miss value, while if he bluffs, he won't barrel. When I asked about how many bluffs he could have you said almost none, so why play passively when he barrels close to no bluffs but you risk missing value from Qx?
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,066
      How many of the hands you put in his range 3bet preflop?


      If I understand question well, his 3bet range should be the nuts, QQ+ AK, even those he could slowplay, because his PFR is only 2.
      But why you are asking about 3bet?

      If he has weak Qx you can only miss value, while if he bluffs, he won't barrel. When I asked about how many bluffs he could have you said almost none, so why play passively when he barrels close to no bluffs but you risk missing value from Qx?


      because I have position and if he does not bet his weak top pair, I can bet. His stack is not full, so by making big bets I think I would not have problem to get in by the river.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      You have 85 hands on him so the stats aren't reliable to get exact ranges.. all they tell is that he is likely to have a big VPIP-PFR gap. This doesn't tell us if he just calls KK+ here... I think AK and QQ+ will be more than a standard 3bet for him as well. It's not very relevant in the hand per say, but it's very relevant in your thinking because you included some of those hands in his postflop range when they are actually excluded after the preflop action.

      If he has Qx: what are cards on which you still get value, which cards scare him?

      If he has a bluff: which cards still give you value, which cards scare him?

      IMO, there are too many cards that make Qx with a weak kicker pot control. At the same time, I get more credit when I raise turn or river so it's very biased opinion on how people play against me. If against you they think raising flop is strong but turn or river is weak or they barrel huge percentage then we have different assumptions so obviously we don't consider the same line to be MaxEV.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,066
      I really see people at this limit limp calling AA, because imo they think - they always limp call, so if they will raise, everyone will fold. Might be selective memory, but I think I see not so rarely this.

      So as I understand the scare cards are the main reason to raise the flop.

      I was thinking scare cards are only K and A, the rest are J-2 which are not scare cards which is lot more if we compare as ratio of scare cards and not scare cards. Thats why I thought even if he does not barrel much, he still can do this sometimes, which is better than not getting any bluffs at all. Because then we get value from Qx + bluffs, and if we raise, we only get value from Qx.