[NL20-NL50] NL50sh - Call pre?

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      I would have folded AKo :D

      Guy is passive fishy so he probably never bluffs here. This was his 1st 3bet.

      Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2042402
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $38.84 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 24
      Hero (UTG): $50.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 3.7, Hands: 557751
      MP: $29.65 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 1.2, Hands: 55
      CO: $54.65 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 0.0, Hands: 87
      BTN: $51.49 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 18, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 79
      SB: $52.90 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 73

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with A :spade: K :spade:
      Hero raises to $1.50, 4 folds, BB raises to $4, Hero calls $2.50

      Flop: ($8.25) J :spade: 9 :spade: 8 :club: (2 players)
      BB bets $6.00, Hero calls $6

      Turn: ($20.25) 9 :heart: (2 players)
      BB bets $10.50, Hero folds
  • 17 replies
    • double2
      double2
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      With 24 hands on villain and effective stack of 78bbs I just stack off pre flop. And as played I would stack off flop.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      I agree with double2.

      With less than 100bb it's a stack off pre with AKs quite easily. As played, raise flop, realize your equity asap. If you make him fold some other AK, AQ it's still a win for you, if not you realize your equity. If you flat you have to fold too many turns.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Did not expected this. I though his 3bet range would be QQ+ and AK... Why do you think he's 3betting wider with 27/9 stats and 0 3bet vs UTG?! I never see them spew here.

      That's also why I didn't raise flop... Vs AA/KK we still don't do great so I prefered calling flop
    • double2
      double2
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      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Did not expected this. I though his 3bet range would be QQ+ and AK... Why do you think he's 3betting wider with 27/9 stats and 0 3bet vs UTG?! I never see them spew here.

      That's also why I didn't raise flop... Vs AA/KK we still don't do great so I prefered calling flop
      So, in what flop do you continue? QJTr? :)

      If you think he is only 3betting QQ+ and AK than you might consider folding pre flop. But the problem is that you have no basis to think that.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      You have 24 hands on him. If his stats is what made you not get it in, filter HUD to show stats only after 100 hands. :D

      It's a bit extreme to rely on 24hands. Maybe they can be a guideline but so far there's nothing surprising here... he has a bit high VPIP, a bit low PFR but one hand can change that and he hasn't 3bet in 24 hands. That's not unheard of actually.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Do you think he's bluffing here?

      Do you think passive players 3bet TT/JJ and AQ here and go broke?

      How would you play AKo?
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Do you think he's bluffing here?

      Do you think passive players 3bet TT/JJ and AQ here and go broke?

      How would you play AKo?
      I can't label him as passive after 24 hands. I could label him as passive if I've seen some hands he played but the stats don't tell me enough to even skew my decision from the standard of AK being a stack off against 78bb stack in 6max.

      I don't need him to 3bet for thin value, I'd actually rather he is polarized and folds often to 4bet.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Well, maybe it's usefull that he played only 1 table. -> Fish -> passive

      -> Depolarized

      Sorry if it seems like I just don't want to accept anything from you, that isn't the case. I already learned a lot from you but in this spot it just doesn't makes sense that he is 4bet bluffing me. He 3bets really small out of the blinds vs UTG. It just has to be at least QQ+, AK ? ! :(
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Well, maybe it's usefull that he played only 1 table. -> Fish -> passive

      -> Depolarized

      Sorry if it seems like I just don't want to accept anything from you, that isn't the case. I already learned a lot from you but in this spot it just doesn't makes sense that he is 4bet bluffing me. He 3bets really small out of the blinds vs UTG. It just has to be at least QQ+, AK ? ! :(
      Heh, no it doesn't seem like it. And I don't want you to just blindly accept what I say. You should be smart enough to make up your own mind, everyone is just giving opinions and reasoning. That doesn't have to convince you to change your play but you should always pay attention to why some think differently than you.

      Regarding the hand, if you just call, check your equity vs QQ+ and your FE vs AK. See if it's OK to stack off on flop, compare it to when you call to hit and see what is the best play. In some cases the highest EV might still be negative with a hand or range and then you have to rethink your gameplan imo. This might be one of thos cases. You lose 3bb if you fold pre. What do you lose if you stack off here, what about if you fold flop, what about if you call and play turns?
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Okay I'll try to figure it out.

      Let's say his 3b range is this:

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 55.42% 39.04% 16.38% { QQ+, JdJh, JdJs, AKs, AdQd, AhQh, AKo }
      MP3 44.58% 28.19% 16.38% { AsKs }


      To go broke we need 48%. We can't go broke and his range might be QQ+, AK only.

      Call pre because of the odds. As said I'd fold AKo probably, what do you think of this?

      Now let's give him the same postflop range but without AK cause he wouldn't bet (quickly) and big with it on this board:

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 63.79% 63.44% 0.35% { QQ+, JdJh, JdJs }
      MP3 36.21% 35.86% 0.35% { AsKs }


      We need 45.5% to go broke (raise/broke) in this spot. As I thought we don't have this much EQ.

      Now can we call? It's pretty hard to calculate howmuch we exactly have to win from him (our implieds) because sometimes he x/f QQ on and A turn or sometimes the board pairs and we have reversed implieds. I'd say we have to win about an extra $15 at least ones we hit our flush. I think such a fishy guy is never folding any hand here on any turn so I think a call is def. doable.

      Did I convince you? :D
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Can you really confirm he never folds to a 4bet? What tells you this? Sure, he doesn't fold to the 4bet a lot but 3 combos of folds will be 10% of his range! Can you make this assumption against a 1 tabling 78bb fish? If he 3bet/folds AJo you will have immense folding equity and quite +EV 4bet/stack off.

      After you call, you have put in 8bb preflop to flop TPTK 1/3 of the time. Do you always stack off there? You have only 45% equity against AA and AK in his range on Axx blank or worse yet 35% on Kxx blanks. Those are your best case scenarios, right? Sure, you now beat his QQ, JJ but all you get there is a cbet, while on the other boards you lose your stack, right? Do you plan on calling to fold TPTK?

      Now, you've flopped a flushdraw and you call an extra 12bb making it a total of 20bb in the pot to hit 18% of the time on the turn (you assume no folding equity on flop so you always need to hit to win). You've now put in 20bb which you lose how often? How often will you make a flush til the turn after you call preflop? Will you lose less than 3bb if you just fold preflop here?

      You assume no FE at all points thus you should never raise. If you call you need to win on implied odds which I doubt you have with AKs (you have some reverse ofc). This makes it a preflop fold imo.

      You are basically saying that you should fold AKs preflop vs a random fish's 3bet for 78bb stacks preflop in a 6max game of NL50 in 2013 almost. That sounds ridiculous to me but if you think this is the correct play and will give you an edge then do it. There is logic in your play but I strongly believe your assumptions are wrong thus making this useless to debate.

      It's like a religious debate since we start with different assumptions and have strong beliefs in our reasoning and logic. :)
    • double2
      double2
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      Hand played today, MP was at the time with ~50 hands, 40/10 and zero 3bets:

      Boss, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $54.38 (108.8 bb)
      MP: $32.45 (64.9 bb)
      Hero (CO): $55.35 (110.7 bb)
      BTN: $56.35 (112.7 bb)
      SB: $48.81 (97.6 bb)
      BB: $20.28 (40.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with K A
      UTG folds, MP raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, BB calls $5.50, MP raises to $32.45 and is all-in, Hero raises to $55.35 and is all-in, BB calls $14.28 and is all-in

      Flop: ($85.43) T A K (3 players, 3 are all-in)
      Turn: ($85.43) T (3 players, 3 are all-in)
      River: ($85.43) 8 (3 players, 3 are all-in)

      Results:
      $85.43 pot ($3 rake)
      Final Board: T A K T 8
      MP showed Q A and lost (-$32.45 net)
      Hero showed K A and won $82.43 ($49.98 net)
      BB showed K Q and lost (-$20.28 net)
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Yeah I forgot that we might have FE :( . This makes it a 4bet/broke but still close I believe. Too close to go broke with AKo?

      @double's hand: This isn't the same. You are 3betting and 40/10 seems fishier... This is just a standard hand. In my hand I'm UTG and a fish 3bets small out of the blinds.

      My postflop reasoning stays the same though

      You assume no FE at all points thus you should never raise. If you call you need to win on implied odds which I doubt you have with AKs (you have some reverse ofc).


      I agree. But I think I just had the correct implieds vs his stack?



      It's like a religious debate since we start with different assumptions and have strong beliefs in our reasoning and logic
      .

      :s_cry: :f_biggrin:
    • double2
      double2
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      I don't think it is that different, my guy opened and 4bet shoved AQ, you really think he can do that but not 3bet AQ SB vs UTG? And that argument you're raising from UTG is really weak, fish is not positional aware.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by double2
      I don't think it is that different, my guy opened and 4bet shoved AQ, you really think he can do that but not 3bet AQ SB vs UTG? And that argument you're raising from UTG is really weak, fish is not positional aware.
      tbh I think this is different yes. Can you filter in your HEM and search hands where a passive guy 3bets your UTG range from the blinds?

      From my experience I never saw someone 3bet there bluffs or QK or something... As I admit AKs is good enough to go broke but its still close.

      I'd fold AKo pre most likely but would like to hear manu's opinion on this.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      I don't make a big difference between AKo and AKs in this spot. The spot is that you go AI pre or not, in which case AKo and AKs have very small equity difference and AKo is the bigger part of your range.

      That said, my 'standard' opponents are probably more aggressive so folding AKo preflop will most often be worse than calling or stacking off, regardless of positions.

      I'm not saying never fold AK preflop, I actually recommend paying careful attention and folding KK if necessary, for example on a FR table you are facing a cold 5bet and you are BB with KK.. usually a snap fold there unless you play at an ultimate fish table. If a lot of the players are regulars they have KK+ there all the time.

      With regards to double2's hand I think his point was that he had more hands on him, still guy did not 3bet preflop yet he was capable of 4betting AQo, meaning his seemingly passive stats were probably wrong. This is what I agree with: you don't have enough stats to measure how passive or aggressive your opponent is here with just 24 hands. It's actually incomplete to label someone as passive or aggressive, there are always different levels and in different spots.

      AKo from UTG facing a 3bet is one of the most common spots I fold AK preflop though so if so far the guy seemed passive enough, I think folding AKo until further notice can be OK. Calling or folding should be very close in EV and I am definitely not against folding a bit tighter than some deem optimal because the 'optimal' usually overestimates aggression.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Thanks.

      You guys made a really good point about the samplesize yes...

      It's not a big profitspot anyways.