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[NL2-NL10] AA, tough spot

    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,722
      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 75.6 BB
      SB: 102.2 BB
      BB: 42.4 BB
      UTG: 140.5 BB
      MP: 100.1 BB
      Hero (CO): 198.3 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:heart: A:diamond:

      UTG calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 3 BB

      Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 2:club: 6:heart: K:heart:
      UTG checks, Hero bets 6 BB, UTG calls 6 BB

      Turn: (21.5 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:
      UTG checks, Hero bets 13 BB, UTG raises to 26 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

      River: (73.5 BB, 2 players) A:spade:
      UTG bets 104.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 104.5 BB

      UTG shows 2:diamond: 2:spade: (Three of a Kind, Twos) (Pre 18%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
      Hero shows A:heart: A:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Aces) (Pre 82%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
      Hero wins 272.5 BB


      3.2 k hands, 19 VPiP, 6 PFR (fishy) raise cbet turn and flop 7%.

      Should I fold turn? It is just miniraise. I planned to call it, and fold to any large bet on river. I am not sure if 7% raise means sets only, or also top pair ? He cant hit here 2 pairs on this board with his range.

      This example shows how bad it is to mini raise with nuts :)
  • 5 replies
    • serverm07
      serverm07
      Basic
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      I think turn is probably a fold. 7% raise usually means he has a very tight raising range so 2 pairs+sets. Luckily we run good and hit our A :)

      I actually wonder if someone can do the math on calling 13bb in the spot if we know he has a set here every time and if we know we are going to get his 104.5bb every time we hit a set. Not really sure how to do that calculation but I think it's probably super close and is probably -ev.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hey mlatasrb,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I agree with serverm here.

      Against these nit fish we bet/bet/bet for value until we are told otherwise. And in this case we were told so on the turn.

      At least we lucked out and got our 2 outer.
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,722
      2 outs to hit set (and be better than his) and there are 46 cards left. So probability is 2/46 (4%). 96% of time I dont hit set, and lose my 13BB to call turn, and 4% I hit and win 177BB pot ( 13/177 BB = 7%)

      EV = p(hit set) * 177bb - p(not hit set) * 13bb = 0.04 * 177bb - 0.96 * 13bb = 7.08 - 12.48 = - 5.4 $

      So on average I was -5.4$ here (in the best case if we get his whole stack)

      Is it correct?
    • serverm07
      serverm07
      Basic
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      I'm not very good at stats but that looks somewhat right. So as you can see it's -EV play.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by mlatasrb
      2 outs to hit set (and be better than his) and there are 46 cards left. So probability is 2/46 (4%). 96% of time I dont hit set, and lose my 13BB to call turn, and 4% I hit and win 177BB pot ( 13/177 BB = 7%)

      EV = p(hit set) * 177bb - p(not hit set) * 13bb = 0.04 * 177bb - 0.96 * 13bb = 7.08 - 12.48 = - 5.4 $

      So on average I was -5.4$ here (in the best case if we get his whole stack)

      Is it correct?
      That looks correct

      We lose 13 bb * 0.96 = 12.48
      We win 177bb * 0.04 = 7.08

      so -5.4

      Of course this is implying that we always get his stack on the river, which is most likely true here.