[NL2-NL10] KJs against bet bet bet

    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Gold
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BTN): 181.3 BB
      SB: 106.2 BB
      BB: 132 BB
      UTG: 45.5 BB
      CO: 100 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:heart: K:heart:

      fold, CO raises to 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, fold, fold

      Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) J:diamond: T:heart: 7:spade:
      CO bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

      Turn: (21.5 BB, 2 players) 2:spade:
      CO bets 10.2 BB, Hero calls 10.2 BB

      River: (41.9 BB, 2 players) 8:club:
      CO bets 29.9 BB, Hero calls 29.9 BB

      CO shows K:club: A:spade: (High Card, Ace) (Pre 70%, Flop 27%, Turn 16%)
      Hero shows J:heart: K:heart: (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 30%, Flop 73%, Turn 84%)
      Hero wins 96.7 BB


      1.6k hands, 19 VPiP, 6 PFR (fishy), cbet flop and turn 75%, river 33%.

      On flop and turn I was afraid of overpair or set, but on river I was sure I win, because his line lost sense on river. Do you agree? He would not bet flop and turn with 99, and
      with any made hand he would check river.
  • 4 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hey mlatasrb,

      Preflop: Considering how little he opens I don't like our call preflop.

      Postflop: Everything looks thin against a nit. While it's true that he may rarely bet an overpair for value on that river he still has some sets and occasional overpair that does put money in the pot. And these tighter guys rarely ever bluff.

      For example on that river we need roughly 32% pot odds or so. If he bluffs 3 out of 10 hands we still can't call and show a profit.
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Gold
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      I write comment and forget to check "notife judge about comment" and then I need to post again. Is there anyway once I write comment and post it, to notify judge? Or at least to delete it?
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Gold
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      I call with suited cards to hit flush, straight, trips, two pair against them, and I am IP, so very often because they are nitty I can steal the pot by floating.

      Did you notice he bets small flop, turn only 50% and river very large on so dangerous board. I had a feeling he wants to tell me he has 99 there.
      with set or overpair he would bet also larger flop and turn.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      I did notice his inconsistent bet sizing (on the smaller side) but this guy is also the same guy than minraised us with a set on a drawy board then overbet shoved the river on a scare card.