[NL20-NL50] sh nl20 kts

    • gao20005
      gao20005
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.10.2008 Posts: 3,134
      villain:33/18/2.3/271(vpip/pfr/af/hands)

      fold to cbet: 38%
      raise cbet flop: 25%(16)
      wtsd: 35
      w¥sd: 42

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($28.13)
      BB ($7.21)
      Hero ($32.74)
      CO ($22.79)
      BTN ($10.51)

      Dealt to Hero T:club: K:club: , Hero raises to $0.60, fold, fold, SB calls $0.50, fold

      FLOP ($1.40) 9:club: 3:spade: 2:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.90, SB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.60

      TURN ($6.40) 9:club: 3:spade: 2:club: 8:club:

      SB bets $3.40, Hero calls $3.40

      RIVER ($13.20) 9:club: 3:spade: 2:club: 8:club: J:heart:

      SB bets $21.63 (AI), Hero ?
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Gao,

      Villain is somewhat aggressive over the sample you have.

      Our decision here would be based on what we've seen him do before or what we expect him to do. Can we expect him to raise flop with worse draws? If so which draws are possible? 76, QJ, 65, 64, 75, J8 etc.

      We need to be good roughly 38% of the time on the river which means that if he only takes this line with flushes we are at least at the breakeven point (assuming he plays the flushes listed above like this).

      For NFD we have AQ, AJ, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3. So he needs to have at least 6 combos of worse hands for us to be winning slightly here.

      Considering he seems aggro he may even be bluffing a hand like AcQd for example or other random hands.

      So I would not fold.
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      Blocking so many combos to!