[NL20-NL50] KA river action

    • KillBZ
      KillBZ
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.03.2011 Posts: 4,050
      Pre i misread the Bu stats, was hoping for a squeeze.

      Flop and turn are pretty standard i guess.

      River he is probably folding like 100% of his check river range, and if we shove we are really repping a flush.

      So what do you guys think. Is it +EV to take hands like KA of a split and shove the river?


      ***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Poker Stars)
      $25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, December 25, 03:32:23 ET 2012
      Table Hydra 10 (Real Money)
      Seat 1 is the button
      Seat 1: Player1 ( $14.12 USD ) - VPIP: 16, PFR: 11, 3B: 4, AF: 0,0, Hands: 56
      Seat 2: Player2 ( $28.49 USD ) - VPIP: 38, PFR: 31, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 13
      Seat 3: Player3 ( $25.00 USD ) - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 2
      Seat 4: Player4 ( $43.94 USD ) - VPIP: 20, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 0,5, Hands: 40
      Seat 5: Player5 ( $94.36 USD ) - VPIP: 19, PFR: 18, 3B: 0, AF: 2,3, Hands: 57
      Seat 6: Hero ( $30.67 USD ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 17, 3B: 7, AF: 1,5, Hands: 43776
      Player2 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
      Player3 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
      ** Dealing down cards **
      Dealt to Hero [ Kh As ]
      Player4 folds
      Player5 raises [$1.00 USD]
      Hero calls [$1.00 USD]
      Player1 folds
      Player2 calls [$0.90 USD]
      Player3 folds
      ** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, Js, Kd ]
      Player2 checks
      Player5 bets [$2.25 USD]
      Hero calls [$2.25 USD]
      Player2 folds
      ** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
      Player5 bets [$4.75 USD]
      Hero calls [$4.75 USD]
      ** Dealing River ** [ Th ]
      Player5 checks
      Hero checks
      Player5 shows [Kc, Ah ]
      Hero shows [Kh, As ]
      Player5 wins $8.24 USD from main pot
      Hero wins $8.23 USD from main pot
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi KillBz,

      I doubt villain will fold AK/AA unless we bet really big. What bet size were you thinking of using?

      I'd be more inclined to bet 1/2 pot to get value from KQ/QQ type hands.
    • Rogier
      Rogier
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 11.08.2006 Posts: 13,212
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi KillBz,

      I doubt villain will fold AK/AA unless we bet really big. What bet size were you thinking of using?

      I'd be more inclined to bet 1/2 pot to get value from KQ/QQ type hands.
      As the word "shove" was mentioned before, I'm guessing slightly more than pot (there's 23 behind, and current pot is 17).

      More or less, the hand came up during my (Dutch) coaching yesterday, so let me elaborate on my reasoning as I sort of suggested shoving after the hand. If you think betting 14 accomplishes the same, let me know (however I felt people would still crycall AA/AK a certain % of the time)

      We can rep a valuerange of AsQx+ and flushes(perhaps KJs), villain will rarely have them (raising MP he'll have some suited connectors, however I think it will rarely happen(<5%) that villain checks here with hands like AQ/flushes. Besides that, AQ probably doesnt double barrel. Also, I think it is doubtful he'll check his combos of KJs/KJo/KTs (reasonable?).
      Thus, I feel it is reasonable to assume his range is capped to one pair hands. KQ AK AA can surely be included in this range, QQ could also be included but I'm willing to discount that(I don't think people are double barreling that as a standard).

      I felt betting ~halfpot would (almost always) get calls from AK AA, maybe(50%) QK, as literally all of those hands are in general bluffcatchers on an ugly board for them (for KQ specifically, I cannot see any hand it's beating really unless people are batshit insane so I'd argue it'd fold more than 50% even). This would make betting halfpot around 0EV if my math is correct.

      Hence I suggested betting anywhere between 80% and 125%(shove) which would win 100% of the time, hence maximizing EV?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hey Rogier,

      If we can't expect villain to really call KQ then half pot doesn't really achieve much. Checking back has the EV of 0 anyway so it would be similar.

      IF we can expect villain to fold a split (AK) and some AA then I don't mind the shove as you explained it. It's really a matter of can he fold TP+ in a 3-bet pot?