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[NL20-NL50] river over bet

    • daisuke3823
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      Hand converted with online hand converter:


      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8, T.
      MP2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 3 folds, BB calls $0.50.

      Flop: ($1.6) K, 6, 7 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.00, BB calls $1.00.

      Turn: ($3.6) K (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks.

      River: ($3.6) T (2 players)
      BB bets $4.00, Hero folds, BB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $3.6.

      his stats in 29 hands  vpip18 pfr11 af2

      I didnt second barrel on the he could guess I had no K.
      can I call to his overbet ?
      he can have busted flush draw,middle pair,bluff?
  • 7 replies
    • dooleslovs
      Joined: 17.02.2011 Posts: 485

      I think its a bit loose to open 8Ts from MP, as played with just this stats I never calling his over bet as he seems, Nity, and they usally have it. And i think theres not much busted draws in his range 89s got there, I doubt he call 54s, and I daubt he ever bluff like this with busted flush draw, becouse all his Asxs still has showdown value.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      98 got there+ he may overbet for value Kx. I don´t think you can call there T8s, also it is quite small pot- you should find a lot better spots where to call overbets with marginal hands.

      best regards,
    • mlatasrb
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,730
      I think he never overbets with middle pair, but just checks and hope he wins.
      Maybe you can count on missed fd, you showed weakness and it depends how aggresive he is. So either he has nuts or nothing, so when you call it, you need to be better 33% of time.
      I think you can call 22 in the same way as Tx here, it doesnt change much if you think he missed fd.
    • serverm07
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      +1 on being T8s a lil too loose from MP but given blinds are fishy players left to act not too aggro 3bet happy and you are not 24 tabling it's fine.

      With that being said, his vpip is at 18, so on the turn he probably doesn't like folding here so I just give up on the hand.

      On the river I think he is trying to rep K or busted draw so now it comes down to reads. What's his flop c/r %, how does he play draws oop, I'm sure you know the drill. Anyway with that being said I find it that most of the time overbets are more for bluffs than value because once you check back turn he probably doesn't think you ever have a K. So his thinking on the river is probably something like "ZoMG HE CHEKED BACK TURN HE NO HAVE K I WONT POT" therefore I click call and expect to be good here 33% pot of the time for sure.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      it{s only a slight overbet, almost pot sized. i think a fold is fine but it{s close. not too many straight draws missed (89 got there and i think he doesnt need to turn T8 or 9T into a bluff or bet so big with these hands) so we are only beating weaker pairs turned into a bluff, some lower straight draws like 54 or 53 and spade flush draws.

      we get like 35% pot odds i think and it{s close, you can try pokerstoving the combos for practice but i think our actual equity should be between 30-40% which is why i am not sure what the best play is. given that it{s a slight overbet the best decision is probably closer to a fold.
    • dooleslovs
      Joined: 17.02.2011 Posts: 485
      From my 250k hans on NL25 experiance such NITs never turn anything to a bluff.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      remember that sample is small but i probably agree with you that he is likelier to have a King here.