[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH AQ cbet overcards for value?

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($32.04)
      BB ($22.16)
      CO ($25.06)
      Hero ($20)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: Q:club:

      CO calls $0.20, Hero raises to $0.80, fold, fold, CO calls $0.60

      FLOP ($1.90) 6:spade: 9:spade: 9:diamond:

      CO checks, Hero bets $1, CO calls $1

      TURN ($3.90) 6:spade: 9:spade: 9:diamond: 5:club:

      CO bets $0.80, Hero folds

      CO wins $3.71

      94/26/4.2, fcbet 58 (12), 37 hands

      Of course he will not fold better hand, but he still folds some of the hands. But he can easily fold most of the worse hands, call with hands like A8+, FDs, str draws. Still there should be value. If I check, practically I am giving up flop and cannot c/c. BUt my hand is so strong vs his preflop calling range and what if he tries to bluff - I don't know.

      If he would not bet this turn - I think barreling would not be good. He will definitely not fold PP and fold his Ax which he could call on flop.
      Only value would be from draws, but thats too thin I think.
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Speed,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I would bet flop, ck turn and call most blank rivers.

      There are two options on the turn, as far as I see it. Either fold, which is the standard or raise (see below).

      Now that he bet into us rather small I still think we could have the best hand. He could be betting this with a weak pair or draw type hand (or 9x to induce). I actually don't mind throwing in a raise to about $3.5 or so with the idea of getting him to fold the weak pairs and have him call his draws (which we still beat).

      Of course what he did in these last 37 hands (of which he played almost every single one of them) is very important because a guy like this may in fact be a huge station so bluffing that turn to get him to fold small pockets won't work.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      Of course what he did in these last 37 hands (of which he played almost every single one of them) is very important because a guy like this may in fact be a huge station so bluffing that turn to get him to fold small pockets won't work.


      Yeah, I know I have to observe such player, but I was playing only 2 tables ant still having lot of showdowns and notes taking on other players so I could not do that quick enought :)